Model Performance
Performance metrics for all prediction models
NFL Moneyline
NFL
XGBoost Classifier
Data: 2021-2024
Accuracy
54.0%
586-500
ROI
-7.4%
95% CI: -13.1% to -1.7%
MAE (Spread)
N/A
RMSE
N/A
Log Loss
N/A
Brier Score
N/A
Sample Size
1,086 predictions
NFL Spread (ATS)
NFL
XGBoost Regressor
Data: 2021-2024
Accuracy
49.3%
518-533
ROI
-4.9%
95% CI: -10.7% to 0.9%
MAE (Spread)
11.56
RMSE
14.77
Log Loss
N/A
Brier Score
N/A
Sample Size
1,051 predictions
NFL Totals (O/U)
NFL
XGBoost Regressor
Data: 2021-2024
Accuracy
50.8%
544-527
ROI
-2.1%
95% CI: -7.8% to 3.6%
MAE (Spread)
11.68
RMSE
14.99
Log Loss
N/A
Brier Score
N/A
Sample Size
1,071 predictions
NFL Score Prediction
NFL
XGBoost Regressor
Data: 2021-2024
Accuracy
N/A
ROI
N/A
MAE (Spread)
11.56
RMSE
14.77
Log Loss
N/A
Brier Score
N/A
Sample Size
1,087 predictions
College Hockey Moneyline
College Hockey
XGBoost + Elo
Data: 2023-2024
Accuracy
67.8%
ROI
+29.5%
95% CI: 21.6% to 37.3%
MAE (Spread)
N/A
RMSE
N/A
Log Loss
0.6015
Brier Score
0.2068
Sample Size(est)
-
College Hockey Score Prediction
College Hockey
XGBoost Regression
Data: 2023-2024
Accuracy
N/A
ROI
N/A
MAE (Spread)
N/A
RMSE
N/A
Log Loss
N/A
Brier Score
N/A
Sample Size(est)
-