Track Record
Full transparency on all alerts, CLV tracking, and performance metrics.
Polling regime
Showing only picks made under burst_2026_09 — 4-hourly baseline plus 1-minute polling in the hour before kickoff. 151 settled so far. The previous era's 12,821 settled picks are kept but excluded — at 30–60 minute resolution, 70% of them quoted a price that had already vanished by the next poll, which is not a price a real tool could have taken. Show all regimes.
How to read this
Current ruleset (would-have-been) view. These numbers retroactively exclude picks that today's selection rules would have suppressed — that removes 30.4% of the picks that were actually shown to users in this window. It is a hypothetical, not our record. See the default as-shown record for what a user betting every displayed pick actually experienced.
Recent Performance
Last 7 Days
CLV+ Rate
80.90%
Avg Edge
+1.27%
ROI
+0.00%
Record
0-0
Win Rate
0.00%
Last 30 Days
CLV+ Rate
78.30%
Avg Edge
+1.09%
ROI
-35.88%
Record
3-5
Win Rate
37.50%
CLV+ Rate
78.30%
Beat the closing line (no-vig devig CLV, reliable closes only)
Average CLV
+1.09%
Edge vs closing line
ROI (90d)
-35.88%
95% CI [-98.2, +26.4]%
All-time -35.88% (n=8, not significant)
Total Alerts
96
8 settled
Win Rate
37.50%
3W - 5L
Track Record
Verified
96 alerts tracked
CLV Distribution
Distribution of no-vig (devig) Closing Line Value across alerts with a reliably captured close — the same CLV definition as every other number on this page. Positive CLV indicates we got a better price than the fair closing line.
Performance by Sport
| Sport | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nfl | 89 | 81.80% | +1.38% | 100.00% | 2-0 | +58.87% |
| tennis_wta | 1 | 0.00% | -14.91% | 0.00% | 0-0 | +0.00% |
| mlb | 6 | 0.00% | -2.13% | 16.70% | 1-5 | -67.46% |
Performance by Bet Type
| Bet Type | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 51 | 82.40% | +1.32% | 0.00% | 0-0 | +0.00% |
| Pass Yds | 6 | 66.70% | +0.65% | 0.00% | 0-0 | +0.00% |
| Rush Yds | 8 | 100.00% | +2.40% | 0.00% | 0-0 | +0.00% |
| Reception Yds | 16 | 81.20% | +1.52% | 0.00% | 0-0 | +0.00% |
| Total | 7 | 0.00% | -2.13% | 16.70% | 1-5 | -67.46% |
| Pass Tds | 4 | 75.00% | +1.30% | 0.00% | 0-0 | +0.00% |
| Moneyline | 4 | 50.00% | -3.26% | 100.00% | 2-0 | +58.87% |
Performance by Detector Source
Compares alerts produced by each detector. market_consensus
is the live line-shopping detector. nhl_stacking_v3 is the
NHL regular-season stacking model — it is in observation mode with
no live alerts and no live record yet (it starts
emitting when the NHL regular season opens); any performance figure
attached to it elsewhere is a backtest, not live results, and it will
only appear in this table once it has real settled alerts. Other model
sources visible here (e.g. nba_model_v2,
nhl_model_v1) are sunset — historical alerts only, no new
picks since 2026-05-30.
| Source | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| market_consensus | 96 | 78.30% | +1.09% | 37.50% | 3-5 | -35.88% |
Performance by Movement Signal
| Movement Class | Record | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| toward_pick | 24-24 | 50.00% | -16.38% |
| away_large | 9-1 | 90.00% | +55.55% |
| away_small | 0-3 | 0.00% | -100.00% |
| stable | 84-163 | 34.00% | -31.77% |
| RLM Status | Record | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| No RLM | 109-185 | 37.10% | -28.38% |
| RLM | 8-6 | 57.10% | -3.46% |
Alert Log
Showing 96 most recent alerts| Date | Sport | Type | Selection | Book | Alert Odds | Close Odds | CLV | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Dalton Schultz Over 4.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
|
BetMGM | -125 | -145 | +1.93% | +2.68% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Pass Yds |
Jalen Hurts Over 206.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
|
DraftKings | -113 | -129 | +1.83% | +2.4% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Wan'Dale Robinson Under 4.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
|
DraftKings | -132 | -147 | +2.07% | +0.84% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Tyjae Spears Over 2.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
|
FanDuel | -102 | -108 | +0.50% | +1.61% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Rush Yds |
Lamar Jackson Under 39.5
New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens
|
DraftKings | -112 | -134 | +2.12% | +3.85% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Alvin Kamara Over 12.5
New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens
|
DraftKings | -107 | -123 | +2.11% | +2.32% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Rashod Bateman Over 38.5
New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens
|
BetMGM | -115 | -133 | +1.94% | +2.72% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Chase Brown Over 19.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
|
FanDuel | -113 | -133 | +1.94% | +3.47% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Pass Yds |
Cooper Rush Under 183.5
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
|
FanDuel | -113 | -126 | +1.25% | +2.4% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Total |
Under 46.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
|
FanDuel | -104 | -114 | N/A | +1.14% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Dallas Goedert Over 3.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
|
Bovada | -130 | -150 | +1.91% | +2.45% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Pass Yds |
Carson Wentz Under 214.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
|
FanDuel | -113 | -132 | +2.62% | +2.04% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Colston Loveland Under 4.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
|
DraftKings | -120 | -138 | +1.41% | +3.26% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Jordan Addison Under 3.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
|
DraftKings | -135 | -166 | +1.97% | +4.59% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Ja'Marr Chase Over 75.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
|
FanDuel | -113 | -131 | +2.97% | +1.14% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
KC Concepcion Under 3.5
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
BetMGM | -135 | -125 | -2.35% | +0.7% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Olamide Zaccheaus Under 1.5
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
|
FanDuel | -138 | -167 | +2.95% | +2.46% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Jonathon Brooks Under 1.5
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
|
BetMGM | -175 | -198 | +1.78% | +1.41% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Derrick Henry Under 1.5
New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens
|
BetMGM | -185 | -234 | +1.71% | +4.66% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Rush Yds |
D'Andre Swift Over 60.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
|
DraftKings | -113 | -128 | +2.30% | +1.31% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Rush Yds |
Chase Brown Under 55.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
|
FanDuel | -113 | -132 | +2.18% | +2.76% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Xavier Hutchinson Over 31.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
|
FanDuel | -113 | -145 | +3.90% | +3.7% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Bucky Irving Over 16.5
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
FanDuel | +100 | -113 | +2.34% | +1.25% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Mack Hollins Over 35.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
|
BetMGM | -111 | -120 | +0.81% | +1.89% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
DeMario Douglas Under 3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
|
Bovada | -135 | -154 | +1.99% | +1.82% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Makai Lemon Under 26.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
|
FanDuel | -113 | -117 | -0.58% | +2.4% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Pass Tds |
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
BetMGM | -105 | -123 | +2.25% | +2.91% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Jahan Dotson Over 1.5
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
|
BetMGM | -125 | -144 | +1.97% | +2.36% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Pass Yds |
Lamar Jackson Under 213.5
New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens
|
FanDuel | -113 | -112 | -1.65% | +2.37% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Juwan Johnson Over 3.5
New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens
|
DraftKings | -123 | -146 | +1.83% | +3.78% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Pass Tds |
Caleb Williams Over 1.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
|
BetMGM | -111 | -119 | -1.31% | +5.09% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Kyle Monangai Under 10.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
|
DraftKings | -112 | -111 | -1.32% | +1.84% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Justin Jefferson Under 6.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
|
DraftKings | -114 | -137 | +2.90% | +2.71% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Ja'Marr Chase Over 6.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
|
DraftKings | -102 | -117 | +2.28% | +1.99% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Pass Yds |
Deshaun Watson Under 175.5
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
FanDuel | -113 | -104 | -3.28% | +2.01% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Rush Yds |
Baker Mayfield Over 15.5
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
FanDuel | -113 | -132 | +2.10% | +2.9% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Chris Godwin Over 3.5
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
BetMGM | -115 | -108 | -2.78% | +1.99% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Kenyon Sadiq Under 2.5
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets
|
FanDuel | -122 | -119 | -2.31% | +2.72% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Christian Watson Under 4.5
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets
|
BetMGM | -155 | -172 | +1.74% | +1.04% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
DK Metcalf Over 4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
|
Bovada | +100 | -117 | +3.45% | +0.82% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Gunnar Helm Under 3.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
|
DraftKings | -162 | -188 | +1.62% | +2.6% | NONE |
| 09/20/26 | nfl | Moneyline |
Baltimore Ravens ML
New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens
|
DraftKings | -375 | -381 | -0.52% | +0.74% | NONE |
| 09/17/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Dawson Knox Under 1.5
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
|
BetMGM | -140 | -158 | +1.98% | +1.39% | NONE |
| 09/17/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Jameson Williams Over 3.5
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
|
DraftKings | -144 | -158 | +0.96% | +1.88% | NONE |
| 09/14/26 | nfl | Receptions |
RJ Harvey Under 2.5
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
|
BetMGM | -115 | -125 | +1.06% | +1.67% | NONE |
| 09/14/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Tyquan Thornton Under 1.5
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
|
DraftKings | -139 | -154 | +0.85% | +2.45% | NONE |
| 09/14/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Travis Kelce Under 4.5
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
|
Bovada | -150 | -170 | +1.62% | +1.97% | NONE |
| 09/14/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Kenneth Walker III Under 3.5
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
|
DraftKings | -146 | -168 | +2.66% | +1.01% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Cam Skattebo Over 15.5
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
|
DraftKings | -111 | -125 | +2.28% | +1.14% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Moneyline |
Minnesota Vikings ML
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
|
DraftKings | -125 | -140 | +1.74% | +1.57% | WIN |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Rush Yds |
KaVontae Turpin Over 5.5
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
|
FanDuel | -102 | -113 | +1.87% | +1.2% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Malachi Fields Under 2.5
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
|
DraftKings | -150 | -172 | +2.38% | +1.25% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
KaVontae Turpin Under 1.5
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
|
DraftKings | -224 | -256 | +1.50% | +1.63% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Theo Johnson Under 1.5
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
|
Bovada | +100 | -113 | +2.34% | +1.25% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Iryna Shymanovich ML
Lea Ma @ Iryna Shymanovich
|
Bovada | -185 | -108 | -14.91% | +3.39% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Keon Coleman Over 11.5
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
|
DraftKings | -108 | -131 | +2.21% | +4.37% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Tommy Tremble Under 1.5
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
|
BetMGM | -125 | -156 | +1.86% | +5.59% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Kenyon Sadiq Under 1.5
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
|
BetMGM | +100 | -122 | +0.68% | +7.54% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Pass Tds |
Lamar Jackson Under 1.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
|
Fanatics | -115 | -132 | +2.18% | +2.02% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Dalton Kincaid Under 3.5
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
|
Bovada | -110 | -112 | -0.22% | +1.13% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Rush Yds |
Baker Mayfield Over 15.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
|
Fanatics | -110 | -126 | +2.47% | +1.51% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Andrei Iosivas Under 1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
|
BetMGM | -125 | -141 | +2.04% | +1.44% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Harold Fannin Jr. Over 36.5
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
|
DraftKings | -109 | -129 | +2.15% | +3.42% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Pass Yds |
Jared Goff Under 258.5
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
|
FanDuel | -113 | -132 | +3.16% | +1.14% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Devaughn Vele Over 39.5
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
|
FanDuel | -113 | -129 | +2.59% | +1.14% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Pass Tds |
Aaron Rodgers Under 1.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
|
Fanatics | -130 | -146 | +2.10% | +1.13% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Samaje Perine Under 1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
|
BetMGM | -185 | -208 | +0.42% | +2.97% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Emeka Egbuka Under 4.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
|
DraftKings | -119 | -138 | +2.03% | +2.61% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Jahan Dotson Over 1.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
|
DraftKings | -111 | -112 | -1.65% | +3.13% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Bijan Robinson Under 4.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
|
FanDuel | -125 | -140 | +1.97% | +1.27% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Rico Dowdle Over 1.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
|
FanDuel | -148 | -158 | +0.96% | +0.9% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Dalton Schultz Over 3.5
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
|
BetMGM | -105 | -110 | -0.77% | +3.31% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Tetairoa McMillan Over 4.5
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
|
DraftKings | -105 | -127 | +3.27% | +2.51% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Chuba Hubbard Over 1.5
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
|
FanDuel | -148 | -169 | +1.50% | +2.44% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Xavier Legette Over 1.5
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
|
BetMGM | -175 | -171 | -1.52% | +1.36% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Darren Waller Over 1.5
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
|
BetMGM | -140 | -146 | -1.10% | +3.19% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Rush Yds |
Joe Burrow Over 7.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
|
FanDuel | -113 | -128 | +2.10% | +1.64% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Parker Washington Over 52.5
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
|
FanDuel | -113 | -129 | +1.75% | +2.54% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Sam LaPorta Over 3.5
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
|
FanDuel | -172 | -193 | +1.66% | +1.36% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Wan'Dale Robinson Under 4.5
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
|
DraftKings | -117 | -131 | +2.01% | +1.28% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Gunnar Helm Under 2.5
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
|
BetMGM | -120 | -145 | +3.95% | +1.1% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Adonai Mitchell Over 2.5
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
|
BetMGM | -115 | -131 | +2.01% | +1.99% | NONE |
| 09/12/26 | nfl | Moneyline |
Pittsburgh Steelers ML
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
|
DraftKings | -265 | -286 | +0.64% | +0.86% | WIN |
| 09/10/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Kyren Williams Over 1.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
|
Bovada | -135 | -156 | +1.51% | +3.04% | NONE |
| 09/10/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Deebo Samuel Over 2.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
|
FanDuel | -136 | -161 | +3.41% | +0.99% | NONE |
| 09/10/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Terrance Ferguson Over 1.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
|
FanDuel | -144 | -169 | +1.98% | +2.74% | NONE |
| 09/10/26 | nfl | Rush Yds |
Puka Nacua Under 2.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
|
DraftKings | -116 | -140 | +4.05% | +0.95% | NONE |
| 09/09/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
George Holani Under 11.5
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks
|
DraftKings | -107 | -114 | +0.33% | +2.14% | NONE |
| 09/09/26 | nfl | Receptions |
A.J. Brown Under 5.5
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks
|
FanDuel | -125 | -132 | -0.54% | +2.98% | NONE |
| 09/09/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
DeMario Douglas Over 19.5
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks
|
DraftKings | -114 | -113 | -1.13% | +1.5% | NONE |
| 09/02/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
|
BetMGM | +100 | +104 | N/A | +2.7% | LOSS |
| 09/02/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
|
FanDuel | -105 | -105 | -2.40% | +2.09% | LOSS |
| 09/02/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 11.5
Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies
|
FanDuel | +100 | +101 | -1.81% | +3.18% | LOSS |
| 09/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays
|
FanDuel | +100 | -110 | N/A | +3.02% | LOSS |
| 09/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
|
Bovada | -105 | -102 | -2.19% | +0.8% | WIN |
| 09/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
|
FanDuel | +100 | -111 | N/A | +1.52% | LOSS |
How We Calculate EV
We use Pinnacle as our sharp benchmark and calculate true probabilities through multiplicative devigging. Our edge is the difference between our calculated true probability and the implied probability at soft books.
Read Full Methodology