Track Record
Full transparency on all alerts, CLV tracking, and performance metrics.
How to read this
Current ruleset (would-have-been) view. These numbers retroactively exclude picks that today's selection rules would have suppressed — that removes 52.3% of the picks that were actually shown to users in this window. It is a hypothetical, not our record. See the default as-shown record for what a user betting every displayed pick actually experienced.
Recent Performance
Last 7 Days
CLV+ Rate
0.00%
Avg Edge
+0.00%
ROI
+0.00%
Record
0-0
Win Rate
0.00%
Last 30 Days
CLV+ Rate
38.90%
Avg Edge
-0.17%
ROI
-6.67%
Record
9-10
Win Rate
47.40%
CLV+ Rate
44.70%
Beat the closing line (no-vig devig CLV, reliable closes only)
Average CLV
-0.22%
Edge vs closing line
ROI (90d)
+4.44%
95% CI [-3.6, +12.5]%
All-time +2.66% (n=2491, not significant)
Total Alerts
486
479 settled
Win Rate
58.20%
279W - 200L
Track Record
Building
Over 400+ alerts tracked
CLV Distribution
Distribution of no-vig (devig) Closing Line Value across alerts with a reliably captured close — the same CLV definition as every other number on this page. Positive CLV indicates we got a better price than the fair closing line.
Performance by Sport
| Sport | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mlb | 124 | 43.40% | -0.17% | 48.70% | 58-61 | -3.87% |
| tennis_wta | 2 | 100.00% | +2.12% | 100.00% | 2-0 | +53.48% |
| tennis_atp | 2 | 100.00% | +2.23% | 50.00% | 1-1 | +0.00% |
| nhl | 55 | 0.00% | -0.66% | 74.50% | 41-14 | +4.53% |
| nba | 303 | 45.50% | -0.65% | 58.80% | 177-124 | +7.42% |
Performance by Bet Type
| Bet Type | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 26 | 60.00% | +0.20% | 61.50% | 16-10 | +0.92% |
| Total | 112 | 41.40% | -0.20% | 49.50% | 53-54 | -1.30% |
| Points | 161 | 44.00% | -0.68% | 58.80% | 94-66 | +0.24% |
| Assists | 82 | 0.00% | +0.00% | 59.80% | 49-33 | +5.84% |
| Rebounds | 105 | 0.00% | +0.00% | 64.40% | 67-37 | +16.61% |
Performance by Detector Source
Compares alerts produced by each detector. market_consensus
is the live line-shopping detector. nhl_stacking_v3 is the
NHL regular-season stacking model — it is in observation mode with
no live alerts and no live record yet (it starts
emitting when the NHL regular season opens); any performance figure
attached to it elsewhere is a backtest, not live results, and it will
only appear in this table once it has real settled alerts. Other model
sources visible here (e.g. nba_model_v2,
nhl_model_v1) are sunset — historical alerts only, no new
picks since 2026-05-30.
| Source | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| market_consensus | 486 | 44.70% | -0.22% | 58.20% | 279-200 | +4.44% |
Performance by Movement Signal
| Movement Class | Record | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| expanding | 26-32 | 44.80% | -25.84% |
| confirming | 14-4 | 77.80% | +56.26% |
| fading | 15-7 | 68.20% | +14.19% |
| RLM Status | Record | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| No RLM | 42-38 | 52.50% | -5.44% |
| RLM | 13-5 | 72.20% | +14.51% |
Alert Log
Showing 486 most recent alerts| Date | Sport | Type | Selection | Book | Alert Odds | Close Odds | CLV | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Los Angeles Dodgers ML
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees
|
DraftKings | -110 | N/A | N/A | +1.0% | LOSS |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.5
San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals
|
FanDuel | +100 | -106 | +0.00% | +1.35% | WIN |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 11.5
Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies
|
FanDuel | +100 | -113 | +1.69% | +1.01% | WIN |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels
|
FanDuel | -104 | -116 | +1.30% | +1.78% | WIN |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
|
William Hill | +100 | -104 | -0.48% | +2.36% | LOSS |
| 07/17/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves
|
MyBookie | -103 | -109 | -0.01% | +1.31% | LOSS |
| 07/12/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Chicago White Sox ML
Athletics @ Chicago White Sox
|
BetUS | -125 | -144 | +2.64% | +3.33% | WIN |
| 07/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins
|
FanDuel | +100 | +101 | -1.81% | +2.18% | LOSS |
| 07/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays
|
DraftKings | -103 | -102 | -1.71% | +1.31% | WIN |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets
|
BetMGM | +100 | +102 | +1.45% | +2.69% | WIN |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Milwaukee Brewers ML
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
William Hill | +100 | +104 | -2.06% | +0.85% | LOSS |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins
|
DraftKings | -103 | -114 | +1.07% | +1.79% | LOSS |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
|
DraftKings | -101 | -113 | -3.34% | +2.49% | LOSS |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
LowVig | -102 | -110 | +0.47% | +1.81% | LOSS |
| 07/10/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers
|
FanDuel | +100 | -103 | -0.48% | +3.18% | WIN |
| 07/10/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Los Angeles Dodgers ML
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
MyBookie | -236 | -198 | -4.56% | +1.01% | LOSS |
| 07/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles
|
Fanatics | +100 | -107 | -0.24% | +2.86% | WIN |
| 07/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 6.5
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants
|
Fanatics | +100 | -106 | +0.00% | +4.0% | LOSS |
| 07/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
Fanatics | +100 | -113 | +2.98% | +3.84% | WIN |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.5
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
Fanatics | +100 | +102 | -0.48% | +2.36% | WIN |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Philadelphia Phillies ML
Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals
|
FanDuel | -188 | -205 | +1.18% | +0.77% | LOSS |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 7.5
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
|
Fanatics | +100 | -116 | -2.17% | +4.79% | LOSS |
| 07/05/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
|
FanDuel | +100 | -113 | -2.05% | +1.69% | WIN |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 11.5
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
|
FanDuel | +100 | -105 | -0.24% | +2.52% | WIN |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
|
FanDuel | +100 | -110 | +0.97% | +2.36% | LOSS |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
|
DraftKings | -101 | +106 | -3.23% | +2.49% | LOSS |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
|
LowVig | -102 | +101 | -2.19% | +1.81% | LOSS |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
|
William Hill | +100 | -111 | +1.09% | +3.84% | WIN |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
|
LowVig | -102 | -102 | -1.71% | +1.32% | WIN |
| 07/02/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
|
DraftKings | -103 | +104 | -3.72% | +1.46% | WIN |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 11.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Athletics
|
Fanatics | +100 | -116 | +1.93% | +2.87% | WIN |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
|
FanDuel | +100 | -112 | +0.48% | +2.18% | LOSS |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 11.5
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
|
BetMGM | +100 | N/A | N/A | +1.01% | WIN |
| 06/16/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Paula Badosa ML
Paula Badosa @ Suzan Lamens
|
William Hill | -115 | -142 | +3.92% | +5.22% | WIN |
| 06/16/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Linda Noskova ML
Renata Zarazua @ Linda Noskova
|
BetUS | -500 | -541 | +0.32% | +2.24% | WIN |
| 06/16/26 | tennis_atp | Moneyline |
Jakub Mensik ML
Adrian Mannarino @ Jakub Mensik
|
LowVig | -164 | -195 | +2.89% | +2.01% | LOSS |
| 06/15/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
St. Louis Cardinals ML
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals
|
DraftKings | -151 | -159 | +0.41% | +0.84% | WIN |
| 06/15/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs
|
BetOnline | +100 | -113 | +1.57% | +3.59% | PUSH |
| 06/15/26 | tennis_atp | Moneyline |
Hubert Hurkacz ML
Hubert Hurkacz @ Andrey Rublev
|
BetUS | +100 | -113 | +1.57% | +2.75% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nhl | Points |
Shea Theodore Under 0.5
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
|
BetMGM | -120 | N/A | N/A | +0.84% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nhl | Points |
Noah Hanifin Under 0.5
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
|
DraftKings | -280 | N/A | N/A | +1.96% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nhl | Points |
Sean Walker Under 0.5
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
|
BetMGM | -350 | N/A | N/A | +0.59% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nhl | Points |
Colton Sissons Under 0.5
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
|
BetMGM | -325 | N/A | N/A | +0.62% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox
|
FanDuel | +100 | -110 | +0.97% | +1.27% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.0
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers
|
BetMGM | +100 | +107 | -3.20% | +1.27% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins
|
FanDuel | +100 | -117 | +2.52% | +2.97% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Points |
Stephon Castle Under 16.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
Bovada | +100 | N/A | N/A | +2.91% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Points |
Josh Hart Under 9.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
DraftKings | -105 | N/A | N/A | +1.75% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Points |
Jalen Brunson Under 28.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
Bovada | +100 | N/A | N/A | +2.91% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Points |
Victor Wembanyama Under 28.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
Bovada | +100 | N/A | N/A | +0.84% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals
|
LowVig | -102 | -113 | +1.19% | +1.23% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Assists |
Julian Champagnie Under 1.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
BetMGM | -175 | N/A | N/A | +2.31% | WIN |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Rebounds |
Jalen Brunson Under 3.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
BetMGM | -140 | N/A | N/A | +2.04% | WIN |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Points |
Karl-Anthony Towns Under 16.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
DraftKings | -110 | -118 | -0.61% | +0.95% | WIN |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Assists |
Victor Wembanyama Under 3.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
BetMGM | -130 | N/A | N/A | +3.01% | WIN |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Rebounds |
Stephon Castle Over 4.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
FanDuel | -125 | N/A | N/A | +0.97% | WIN |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Rebounds |
Jose Alvarado Under 1.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
BetMGM | -110 | N/A | N/A | +3.02% | WIN |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Assists |
Landry Shamet Under 1.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
BetMGM | -235 | N/A | N/A | +2.93% | WIN |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Points |
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 16.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
FanDuel | -102 | -103 | -2.27% | +2.39% | LOSS |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Assists |
Stephon Castle Over 6.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
BetMGM | -105 | N/A | N/A | +2.69% | LOSS |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Points |
Jalen Brunson Under 27.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
DraftKings | -105 | -110 | -1.22% | +2.11% | LOSS |
| 06/13/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels
|
Fanatics | +100 | -105 | -0.24% | +3.59% | LOSS |
| 06/13/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants
|
FanDuel | +100 | -107 | +0.24% | +1.7% | WIN |
| 06/13/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds
|
FanDuel | +100 | -104 | -0.48% | +1.7% | LOSS |
| 06/13/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox
|
BetOnline | +100 | -102 | -0.97% | +2.12% | LOSS |
| 06/13/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals
|
Fanatics | +100 | -104 | -0.48% | +5.02% | WIN |
| 06/13/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins
|
BetUS | +100 | -110 | +0.97% | +4.82% | WIN |
| 06/13/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals
|
BetMGM | +100 | -106 | +0.00% | +4.82% | LOSS |
| 06/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox
|
MyBookie | -101 | -115 | +1.80% | +3.55% | LOSS |
| 06/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals
|
BetMGM | +100 | -102 | -0.97% | +3.8% | WIN |
| 06/11/26 | nhl | Points |
Sean Walker Under 0.5
Vegas Golden Knights @ Carolina Hurricanes
|
BetMGM | -325 | N/A | N/A | +0.62% | LOSS |
| 06/11/26 | nhl | Points |
Noah Hanifin Under 0.5
Vegas Golden Knights @ Carolina Hurricanes
|
DraftKings | -315 | N/A | N/A | +1.45% | WIN |
| 06/11/26 | nhl | Moneyline |
Carolina Hurricanes ML
Vegas Golden Knights @ Carolina Hurricanes
|
FanDuel | -152 | -155 | -0.54% | +1.12% | WIN |
| 06/11/26 | nba | Points |
Jose Alvarado Over 2.5
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
|
FanDuel | -120 | N/A | N/A | +1.47% | WIN |
| 06/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
William Hill | +100 | -108 | +0.48% | +4.0% | LOSS |
| 06/11/26 | nba | Points |
Miles McBride Under 4.5
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
|
DraftKings | -122 | -136 | +0.50% | +1.13% | WIN |
| 06/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 11.5
Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies
|
LowVig | -102 | -115 | +1.67% | +1.65% | WIN |
| 06/10/26 | nba | Rebounds |
Luke Kornet Under 2.5
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
|
Bovada | -135 | N/A | N/A | +2.51% | WIN |
| 06/10/26 | nba | Points |
Luke Kornet Over 1.5
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
|
FanDuel | -125 | -141 | +0.81% | +1.28% | LOSS |
| 06/10/26 | nba | Points |
Stephon Castle Under 16.5
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
|
DraftKings | -106 | -115 | -0.28% | +1.74% | WIN |
| 06/10/26 | nba | Assists |
De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
|
Bovada | -125 | N/A | N/A | +1.91% | WIN |
| 06/10/26 | nba | Assists |
Stephon Castle Under 6.5
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
|
Bovada | -105 | N/A | N/A | +1.35% | WIN |
| 06/10/26 | nba | Points |
Jalen Brunson Over 27.5
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
|
DraftKings | -103 | -112 | -0.27% | +1.59% | WIN |
| 06/10/26 | nba | Assists |
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 3.5
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
|
FanDuel | -128 | N/A | N/A | +2.03% | LOSS |
| 06/10/26 | nba | Points |
Julian Champagnie Under 9.5
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
|
DraftKings | -104 | -119 | +1.02% | +2.99% | WIN |
| 06/10/26 | nba | Assists |
Josh Hart Over 4.5
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
|
DraftKings | -110 | N/A | N/A | +2.28% | WIN |
| 06/10/26 | nba | Assists |
Dylan Harper Under 3.5
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
|
BetMGM | -140 | N/A | N/A | +2.56% | WIN |
| 06/10/26 | nba | Assists |
Jose Alvarado Under 1.5
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
|
DraftKings | -160 | N/A | N/A | +3.23% | LOSS |
| 06/10/26 | nba | Points |
Landry Shamet Over 7.5
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
|
FanDuel | +100 | -117 | +1.53% | +1.23% | LOSS |
| 06/10/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
|
Fanatics | +100 | -102 | -0.97% | +5.02% | WIN |
| 06/10/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Los Angeles Dodgers ML
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
LowVig | -192 | -202 | +0.40% | +1.71% | LOSS |
| 06/10/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.0
Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals
|
MyBookie | -103 | -105 | -0.98% | +1.43% | PUSH |
| 06/09/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
William Hill | +100 | -104 | -0.96% | +2.54% | LOSS |
| 06/09/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets
|
FanDuel | +100 | -101 | -1.21% | +3.59% | WIN |
| 06/09/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
New York Yankees @ Cleveland Guardians
|
BetOnline | +100 | -103 | -0.73% | +2.97% | LOSS |
| 06/09/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins
|
FanDuel | +100 | -111 | +1.21% | +1.7% | LOSS |
| 06/09/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 13.5
Milwaukee Brewers @ Athletics
|
Bovada | +100 | -104 | -1.53% | +4.83% | LOSS |
| 06/09/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Miami Marlins ML
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins
|
BetUS | -130 | -135 | +0.01% | +2.33% | WIN |
| 06/09/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Toronto Blue Jays ML
Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays
|
William Hill | +100 | -107 | +0.73% | +1.72% | WIN |
| 06/09/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 12.5
Milwaukee Brewers @ Athletics
|
Fanatics | +100 | -109 | +0.73% | +4.43% | WIN |
How We Calculate EV
We use Pinnacle as our sharp benchmark and calculate true probabilities through multiplicative devigging. Our edge is the difference between our calculated true probability and the implied probability at soft books.
Read Full Methodology