Track Record
Full transparency on all alerts, CLV tracking, and performance metrics.
How to read this
This is the as-shown record: every pick displayed to users (deduped to one bet per pick at the best available price), with no retroactive filtering. It covers a single, mostly-playoff regime and is not a proven edge — recent windows have run around break-even to slightly negative, and the ROI confidence intervals span zero. All CLV figures use the fixed no-vig (devig) CLV; the legacy price-based CLV was discredited and no longer appears anywhere on this page. Judge us on forward results, not any single window. A current-ruleset (would-have-been) view is available, clearly labeled — it excludes picks that were shown, so it is not the record.
Recent Performance
Last 7 Days
CLV+ Rate
0.00%
Avg Edge
+0.00%
ROI
+0.00%
Record
0-0
Win Rate
0.00%
Last 30 Days
CLV+ Rate
62.50%
Avg Edge
+0.89%
ROI
-9.85%
Record
26-29
Win Rate
47.30%
CLV+ Rate
59.70%
Beat the closing line (no-vig devig CLV, reliable closes only)
Average CLV
+0.55%
Edge vs closing line
ROI (90d)
-1.52%
95% CI [-7.4, +4.3]%
All-time -0.16% (n=5924, not significant)
Total Alerts
1,019
1,005 settled
Win Rate
52.70%
530W - 475L
Track Record
Verified
Over 1,000+ alerts tracked
CLV Distribution
Distribution of no-vig (devig) Closing Line Value across alerts with a reliably captured close — the same CLV definition as every other number on this page. Positive CLV indicates we got a better price than the fair closing line.
Performance by Sport
| Sport | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mlb | 238 | 60.10% | +0.62% | 48.00% | 110-119 | -6.49% |
| tennis_wta | 2 | 100.00% | +2.12% | 100.00% | 2-0 | +53.48% |
| tennis_atp | 2 | 100.00% | +2.23% | 50.00% | 1-1 | +0.00% |
| nhl | 197 | 66.70% | +0.41% | 59.40% | 117-80 | -1.65% |
| nba | 580 | 53.20% | +0.08% | 52.20% | 300-275 | +0.31% |
Performance by Bet Type
| Bet Type | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 37 | 58.30% | +0.18% | 56.80% | 21-16 | -0.82% |
| Total | 186 | 60.30% | +0.78% | 45.80% | 81-96 | -7.48% |
| Spread | 37 | 58.80% | -0.02% | 67.60% | 25-12 | +13.64% |
| Points | 267 | 58.30% | +0.29% | 51.90% | 137-127 | -6.06% |
| Shots on Goal | 135 | 0.00% | +0.00% | 53.30% | 72-63 | -4.49% |
| Rebounds | 193 | 0.00% | +0.00% | 54.20% | 104-88 | +3.28% |
| Assists | 164 | 0.00% | +0.00% | 55.20% | 90-73 | +5.52% |
Performance by Detector Source
Compares alerts produced by each detector. market_consensus
is the live line-shopping detector. nhl_stacking_v3 is the
NHL regular-season stacking model — it is in observation mode with
no live alerts and no live record yet (it starts
emitting when the NHL regular season opens); any performance figure
attached to it elsewhere is a backtest, not live results, and it will
only appear in this table once it has real settled alerts. Other model
sources visible here (e.g. nba_model_v2,
nhl_model_v1) are sunset — historical alerts only, no new
picks since 2026-05-30.
| Source | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| market_consensus | 1,019 | 59.70% | +0.55% | 52.70% | 530-475 | -1.52% |
Performance by Movement Signal
| Movement Class | Record | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| expanding | 26-32 | 44.80% | -25.84% |
| confirming | 14-4 | 77.80% | +56.26% |
| fading | 15-7 | 68.20% | +14.19% |
| RLM Status | Record | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| No RLM | 42-38 | 52.50% | -5.44% |
| RLM | 13-5 | 72.20% | +14.51% |
Alert Log
Showing 1019 most recent alerts| Date | Sport | Type | Selection | Book | Alert Odds | Close Odds | CLV | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Los Angeles Dodgers ML
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees
|
DraftKings | -110 | N/A | N/A | +1.0% | LOSS |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
New York Yankees ML
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees
|
BetUS | +109 | +115 | -2.35% | +1.5% | LOSS |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 7.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians
|
Fanatics | +105 | -121 | +4.65% | +5.84% | WIN |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.5
San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals
|
FanDuel | +100 | -106 | +0.00% | +1.35% | WIN |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers
|
LowVig | +101 | +100 | -1.20% | +1.53% | WIN |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 11.5
Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies
|
FanDuel | +100 | -113 | +1.69% | +1.01% | WIN |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels
|
FanDuel | -104 | -116 | +1.30% | +1.78% | WIN |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels
|
William Hill | +105 | -116 | +3.50% | +5.02% | WIN |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
|
William Hill | +100 | -104 | -0.48% | +2.36% | LOSS |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Spread |
San Francisco Giants +1.5
San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners
|
MyBookie | -139 | -122 | -4.29% | +0.64% | LOSS |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.0
San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners
|
LowVig | +110 | +107 | -0.93% | +7.36% | LOSS |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
|
LowVig | +112 | -118 | +5.58% | +7.92% | WIN |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
|
FanDuel | +102 | -109 | +1.23% | +2.57% | LOSS |
| 07/18/26 | mlb | Spread |
Baltimore Orioles +1.5
Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros
|
LowVig | -207 | N/A | N/A | +0.51% | WIN |
| 07/18/26 | mlb | Spread |
Chicago White Sox +1.5
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
|
LowVig | -195 | -216 | +1.32% | +0.93% | WIN |
| 07/18/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians
|
LowVig | +103 | -115 | +2.55% | +3.1% | PUSH |
| 07/18/26 | mlb | Spread |
Cleveland Guardians +1.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians
|
LowVig | -170 | -181 | +0.48% | +0.73% | WIN |
| 07/18/26 | mlb | Spread |
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians
|
MyBookie | -186 | -195 | +0.13% | +0.66% | WIN |
| 07/18/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 7.0
San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners
|
LowVig | +110 | -116 | +4.66% | +7.69% | PUSH |
| 07/18/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
|
LowVig | +107 | -103 | +0.96% | +6.09% | LOSS |
| 07/17/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves
|
MyBookie | -103 | -109 | -0.01% | +1.31% | LOSS |
| 07/12/26 | mlb | Spread |
New York Yankees +1.5
New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals
|
LowVig | -183 | -196 | +0.63% | +0.67% | WIN |
| 07/12/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Chicago White Sox ML
Athletics @ Chicago White Sox
|
BetUS | -125 | -144 | +2.64% | +3.33% | WIN |
| 07/12/26 | mlb | Spread |
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
LowVig | +101 | +100 | -0.97% | +1.03% | WIN |
| 07/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets
|
Bovada | +105 | -109 | +1.95% | +3.65% | LOSS |
| 07/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins
|
FanDuel | +100 | +101 | -1.81% | +2.18% | LOSS |
| 07/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays
|
DraftKings | -103 | -102 | -1.71% | +1.31% | WIN |
| 07/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins
|
DraftKings | +101 | +106 | -2.73% | +4.21% | LOSS |
| 07/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres
|
LowVig | +103 | -120 | +3.94% | +4.12% | LOSS |
| 07/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 7.5
Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers
|
LowVig | +103 | -115 | +2.91% | +4.95% | LOSS |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Spread |
Athletics +1.5
Athletics @ Chicago White Sox
|
LowVig | -185 | -191 | -0.25% | +0.62% | WIN |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets
|
BetMGM | +100 | +102 | +1.45% | +2.69% | WIN |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Milwaukee Brewers ML
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
William Hill | +100 | +104 | -2.06% | +0.85% | LOSS |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Cincinnati Reds ML
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
|
BetUS | +107 | -113 | +3.15% | +2.19% | LOSS |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Toronto Blue Jays ML
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres
|
BetUS | +109 | -105 | +2.40% | +1.95% | LOSS |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins
|
DraftKings | -103 | -114 | +1.07% | +1.79% | LOSS |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
|
DraftKings | -101 | -113 | -3.34% | +2.49% | LOSS |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Spread |
Cincinnati Reds +1.5
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
|
LowVig | -138 | -176 | +3.71% | +1.07% | LOSS |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals
|
LowVig | +103 | +103 | -1.43% | +3.95% | LOSS |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres
|
LowVig | +103 | -115 | +2.79% | +3.27% | LOSS |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
LowVig | -102 | -110 | +0.47% | +1.81% | LOSS |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals
|
LowVig | +112 | -108 | +3.31% | +5.63% | WIN |
| 07/10/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers
|
FanDuel | +100 | -103 | -0.48% | +3.18% | WIN |
| 07/10/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
DraftKings | +102 | -110 | +1.47% | +4.25% | WIN |
| 07/10/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Los Angeles Dodgers ML
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
MyBookie | -236 | -198 | -4.56% | +1.01% | LOSS |
| 07/10/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals
|
FanDuel | +102 | +101 | -1.31% | +2.06% | WIN |
| 07/10/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays
|
LowVig | +112 | -101 | +4.40% | +6.16% | LOSS |
| 07/10/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
|
LowVig | +112 | -117 | +4.04% | +6.87% | WIN |
| 07/10/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
LowVig | +103 | -108 | +0.74% | +1.74% | NONE |
| 07/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles
|
Fanatics | +100 | -107 | -0.24% | +2.86% | WIN |
| 07/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 6.5
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants
|
Fanatics | +100 | -106 | +0.00% | +4.0% | LOSS |
| 07/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Athletics @ Detroit Tigers
|
LowVig | +107 | -110 | -0.83% | +6.43% | WIN |
| 07/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
|
FanDuel | +104 | -112 | +2.43% | +1.06% | LOSS |
| 07/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
Fanatics | +100 | -113 | +2.98% | +3.84% | WIN |
| 07/07/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants
|
LowVig | +101 | -115 | +2.42% | +3.22% | LOSS |
| 07/07/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds
|
BetMGM | +105 | -104 | +0.74% | +5.68% | LOSS |
| 07/07/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 7.5
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
|
BetMGM | +105 | -106 | +2.19% | +4.51% | WIN |
| 07/07/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox
|
LowVig | +103 | -106 | +1.22% | +3.61% | LOSS |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Arizona Diamondbacks ML
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
|
BetUS | +109 | +112 | -1.82% | +1.71% | WIN |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Spread |
Colorado Rockies +1.5
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
LowVig | +103 | +107 | -2.24% | +1.74% | WIN |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.5
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
Fanatics | +100 | +102 | -0.48% | +2.36% | WIN |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Philadelphia Phillies ML
Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals
|
FanDuel | -188 | -205 | +1.18% | +0.77% | LOSS |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 7.5
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
|
Fanatics | +100 | -116 | -2.17% | +4.79% | LOSS |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Spread |
Houston Astros +1.5
Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals
|
LowVig | -160 | -185 | +2.39% | +0.73% | WIN |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals
|
LowVig | +103 | +100 | -0.83% | +2.93% | LOSS |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals
|
LowVig | +107 | -106 | +1.69% | +3.32% | WIN |
| 07/05/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
New York Mets ML
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
|
BetUS | +107 | -106 | +2.18% | +1.09% | WIN |
| 07/05/26 | mlb | Spread |
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners
|
MyBookie | -168 | -207 | +3.04% | +0.89% | LOSS |
| 07/05/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
|
FanDuel | +104 | +103 | -1.30% | +2.09% | WIN |
| 07/05/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
|
FanDuel | +100 | -113 | -2.05% | +1.69% | WIN |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Texas Rangers ML
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
|
BetUS | +106 | +111 | -2.18% | +1.31% | LOSS |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
|
LowVig | +103 | -108 | +1.22% | +2.76% | WIN |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 11.5
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
|
FanDuel | +100 | -105 | -0.24% | +2.52% | WIN |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Spread |
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
|
BetMGM | -145 | -153 | +0.27% | +2.18% | WIN |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Spread |
New York Yankees -1.5
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
|
FanDuel | +132 | +131 | -1.23% | +1.03% | LOSS |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
|
FanDuel | +100 | -110 | +0.97% | +2.36% | LOSS |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
|
DraftKings | -101 | +106 | -3.23% | +2.49% | LOSS |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.0
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
|
LowVig | +107 | +101 | -0.12% | +5.06% | LOSS |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Spread |
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
|
BetUS | -165 | -173 | +0.11% | +0.81% | WIN |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
|
LowVig | -102 | +101 | -2.19% | +1.81% | LOSS |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros
|
LowVig | +103 | -109 | +1.47% | +3.44% | WIN |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
|
William Hill | +100 | -111 | +1.09% | +3.84% | WIN |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
|
LowVig | -102 | -102 | -1.71% | +1.32% | WIN |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.0
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
|
LowVig | +103 | -108 | +0.50% | +3.1% | LOSS |
| 07/02/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
|
DraftKings | -103 | +104 | -3.72% | +1.46% | WIN |
| 07/02/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
|
William Hill | +110 | -117 | +5.36% | +0.85% | LOSS |
| 07/02/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 6.5
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
|
LowVig | +107 | -119 | +4.44% | +7.24% | LOSS |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Toronto Blue Jays ML
New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays
|
LowVig | +105 | -112 | +2.44% | +1.32% | WIN |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 11.5
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs
|
LowVig | +107 | -105 | +1.45% | +2.45% | LOSS |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 10.0
Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
|
William Hill | +105 | -101 | +0.01% | +4.17% | WIN |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Athletics
|
William Hill | +115 | -113 | +5.06% | +6.87% | WIN |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays
|
DraftKings | +102 | -108 | +2.55% | +4.25% | WIN |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 11.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Athletics
|
Fanatics | +100 | -116 | +1.93% | +2.87% | WIN |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox
|
MyBookie | +104 | -103 | +0.25% | +1.4% | LOSS |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
|
FanDuel | +102 | -114 | +2.31% | +1.38% | WIN |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
|
FanDuel | +100 | -112 | +0.48% | +2.18% | LOSS |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros
|
LowVig | +107 | -107 | +1.93% | +4.54% | LOSS |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 11.5
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
|
BetMGM | +100 | N/A | N/A | +1.01% | WIN |
| 06/16/26 | mlb | Spread |
Colorado Rockies +1.5
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs
|
LowVig | -112 | -119 | +0.26% | +1.72% | WIN |
| 06/16/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Paula Badosa ML
Paula Badosa @ Suzan Lamens
|
William Hill | -115 | -142 | +3.92% | +5.22% | WIN |
How We Calculate EV
We use Pinnacle as our sharp benchmark and calculate true probabilities through multiplicative devigging. Our edge is the difference between our calculated true probability and the implied probability at soft books.
Read Full Methodology