Model Performance
Performance metrics for all prediction models
NFL Moneyline
NFL
XGBoost Classifier
Data: 2019-2025
Accuracy
64.4%
1,230-679
ROI (Est.)
+23.0%
95% CI: 18.9% to 27.1%
MAE (Spread)
N/A
RMSE
N/A
Log Loss
0.6567
Brier Score
0.2255
Sample Size
1,909 predictions
NFL Spread (ATS)
NFL
XGBoost Regressor
Data: 2019-2025
Accuracy
48.8%
911-955
ROI (Est.)
-6.8%
95% CI: -11.2% to -2.5%
MAE (Spread)
11.26
RMSE(est)
14.08
Log Loss
N/A
Brier Score
N/A
Sample Size
1,866 predictions
NFL Totals (O/U)
NFL
XGBoost Regressor
Data: 2019-2025
Accuracy
49.1%
928-962
ROI (Est.)
-6.3%
95% CI: -10.6% to -2.0%
MAE (Spread)
45.68
RMSE(est)
57.1
Log Loss
N/A
Brier Score
N/A
Sample Size
1,890 predictions
NFL Score Prediction
NFL
XGBoost Regressor
Data: 2019-2025
Accuracy
N/A
ROI (Est.)
N/A
MAE (Spread)
7.64
RMSE(est)
9.55
Log Loss
N/A
Brier Score
N/A
Sample Size
1,909 predictions
College Hockey Moneyline
College Hockey
XGBoost + Elo
Data: 2023-2024
Accuracy
67.8%
ROI (Est.)
+29.5%
95% CI: 21.6% to 37.3%
MAE (Spread)
N/A
RMSE
N/A
Log Loss
0.6015
Brier Score
0.2068
Sample Size(est)
-
College Hockey Score Prediction
College Hockey
XGBoost Regression
Data: 2023-2024
Accuracy
N/A
ROI (Est.)
N/A
MAE (Spread)
N/A
RMSE
N/A
Log Loss
N/A
Brier Score
N/A
Sample Size(est)
-