Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Teams, 2023
Season averages per game. Expected wins adds up each game's adjusted win expectancy, so wins minus expected is roughly luck: close games, fumble bounces, a kicker. Click a column to sort.
| Team | Record | Adj off EPA | Adj def EPA | Adj margin | Raw margin | Expected wins | Wins − expected | Avg vs line | Turnover diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 14–6 | +0.164 | -0.090 | +0.254 | +0.250 | 15.9 | -1.9 | +1.9 | +12 |
| BAL | 14–5 | +0.063 | -0.154 | +0.218 | +0.210 | 13.6 | +0.4 | +7.6 | +6 |
| BUF | 12–7 | +0.126 | -0.059 | +0.185 | +0.185 | 13.8 | -1.8 | +2.1 | +5 |
| DAL | 12–6 | +0.080 | -0.089 | +0.169 | +0.180 | 12.2 | -0.2 | +3.9 | +9 |
| KC | 15–6 | +0.038 | -0.105 | +0.143 | +0.124 | 15.1 | -0.1 | +0.5 | -8 |
| MIA | 11–7 | +0.094 | -0.024 | +0.119 | +0.115 | 11.5 | -0.5 | +0.5 | +1 |
| DET | 14–6 | +0.089 | -0.010 | +0.099 | +0.088 | 13.5 | +0.5 | +0.8 | +3 |
| GB | 10–9 | +0.076 | +0.007 | +0.068 | +0.066 | 10.4 | -0.4 | +4.0 | +1 |
| NO | 9–8 | -0.032 | -0.086 | +0.054 | +0.086 | 9.1 | -0.1 | +2.4 | +13 |
| LA | 10–8 | +0.035 | -0.017 | +0.053 | +0.039 | 10.4 | -0.4 | +1.9 | -2 |
| TB | 10–9 | -0.011 | -0.036 | +0.026 | +0.019 | 9.2 | +0.8 | +4.2 | +6 |
| HOU | 11–8 | -0.011 | -0.026 | +0.015 | +0.031 | 10.1 | +0.9 | +3.0 | +8 |
| CLE | 11–7 | -0.161 | -0.170 | +0.008 | +0.014 | 8.9 | +2.1 | -0.2 | -12 |
| PHI | 11–7 | +0.042 | +0.047 | -0.005 | -0.007 | 9.1 | +1.9 | -5.4 | -10 |
| MIN | 7–10 | -0.065 | -0.046 | -0.019 | -0.028 | 8.2 | -1.2 | -0.2 | -12 |
| PIT | 10–8 | -0.076 | -0.055 | -0.021 | -0.033 | 8.7 | +1.3 | -1.2 | +10 |
| CHI | 7–10 | -0.067 | -0.041 | -0.027 | -0.011 | 8.1 | -1.1 | +2.2 | +3 |
| IND | 9–8 | -0.020 | +0.008 | -0.028 | -0.010 | 7.7 | +1.3 | +0.0 | +6 |
| CIN | 9–8 | -0.010 | +0.019 | -0.029 | -0.048 | 8.0 | +1.0 | -1.8 | +9 |
| JAX | 9–8 | -0.067 | -0.027 | -0.040 | -0.050 | 8.0 | +1.0 | -1.2 | -4 |
| SEA | 9–8 | -0.003 | +0.039 | -0.042 | -0.045 | 7.9 | +1.1 | -1.6 | +4 |
| LV | 8–9 | -0.115 | -0.054 | -0.061 | -0.057 | 6.7 | +1.3 | +2.9 | -3 |
| DEN | 8–9 | -0.055 | +0.021 | -0.077 | -0.074 | 7.0 | +1.0 | -2.2 | +4 |
| TEN | 6–11 | -0.054 | +0.024 | -0.078 | -0.066 | 6.2 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -5 |
| LAC | 5–12 | -0.069 | +0.012 | -0.081 | -0.096 | 7.1 | -2.1 | -3.4 | -1 |
| ATL | 7–10 | -0.116 | -0.032 | -0.085 | -0.049 | 6.4 | +0.6 | -3.6 | -12 |
| NYJ | 7–10 | -0.257 | -0.134 | -0.124 | -0.130 | 5.8 | +1.2 | -1.1 | -3 |
| NE | 4–13 | -0.193 | -0.066 | -0.127 | -0.134 | 5.7 | -1.7 | -4.2 | -14 |
| NYG | 6–11 | -0.175 | -0.035 | -0.140 | -0.149 | 5.0 | +1.0 | -1.7 | +11 |
| ARI | 4–13 | -0.081 | +0.085 | -0.166 | -0.176 | 4.9 | -0.9 | +0.2 | -2 |
| CAR | 2–15 | -0.190 | +0.007 | -0.197 | -0.194 | 2.8 | -0.8 | -5.5 | -10 |
| WAS | 4–13 | -0.125 | +0.092 | -0.216 | -0.217 | 4.5 | -0.5 | -7.0 | -13 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.