Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tom Brady — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.193
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.166
Dropbacks
838
Turnover EPA
-67.9
WPA
+3.58
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 50 | +0.370 | +0.280 | +0.090 | +18.5 | 2 / 0 | -5.1 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | +3.2 |
| 2 | ATL | 39 | -0.026 | +0.048 | -0.073 | -1.0 | 0 / 1 | -4.3 | 3 | -7.1 | +0.10 | +4.9 |
| 3 | LA | 58 | +0.332 | +0.227 | +0.105 | +19.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.17 | +3.8 |
| 4 | NE | 44 | +0.092 | +0.051 | +0.041 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.05 | -10.7 |
| 5 | MIA | 42 | +0.750 | +0.674 | +0.076 | +31.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.52 | +13.5 |
| 6 | PHI | 42 | +0.307 | +0.321 | -0.014 | +12.9 | 1 / 0 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.45 | +12.9 |
| 7 | CHI | 36 | +0.275 | +0.257 | +0.018 | +9.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | -8.5 |
| 8 | NO | 43 | +0.124 | +0.022 | +0.102 | +5.3 | 2 / 1 | -18.7 | 3 | -9.2 | +0.10 | +0.4 |
| 10 | WAS | 34 | -0.094 | -0.085 | -0.009 | -3.2 | 2 / 0 | -9.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.10 | -1.1 |
| 11 | NYG | 46 | +0.140 | +0.142 | -0.003 | +6.4 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.27 | -1.1 |
| 12 | IND | 36 | -0.029 | -0.037 | +0.008 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.06 | +1.0 |
| 13 | ATL | 51 | +0.240 | +0.307 | -0.067 | +12.2 | 1 / 0 | -7.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.55 | +2.9 |
| 14 | BUF | 48 | +0.286 | +0.208 | +0.078 | +13.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.49 | -2.2 |
| 15 | NO | 52 | -0.223 | -0.315 | +0.092 | -11.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 4 | -7.9 | -0.34 | -14.4 |
| 16 | CAR | 31 | +0.330 | +0.323 | +0.007 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +2.8 |
| 17 | NYJ | 50 | +0.340 | +0.444 | -0.104 | +17.0 | 1 / 0 | -1.8 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.82 | +10.0 |
| 18 | CAR | 38 | +0.478 | +0.470 | +0.009 | +18.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.42 | +13.1 |
| 19 | PHI | 41 | +0.183 | +0.201 | -0.017 | +7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.2 | +0.06 | +8.2 |
| 20 | LA | 57 | -0.151 | -0.245 | +0.094 | -8.6 | 1 / 1 | -8.6 | 3 | -9.1 | -0.38 | -9.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.