Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Ben Roethlisberger — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.078
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.070
Dropbacks
692
Turnover EPA
-69.9
WPA
-0.29
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 34 | +0.048 | -0.024 | +0.072 | +1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.9 | -0.09 | -10.5 |
| 2 | LV | 42 | +0.001 | +0.064 | -0.064 | +0.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.02 | +4.3 |
| 3 | CIN | 62 | -0.163 | -0.144 | -0.018 | -10.1 | 2 / 0 | -9.3 | 4 | -5.3 | -0.28 | -5.4 |
| 4 | GB | 42 | -0.234 | -0.250 | +0.017 | -9.8 | 1 / 1 | -5.3 | 2 | -6.0 | -0.13 | +1.4 |
| 5 | DEN | 26 | +0.375 | +0.360 | +0.016 | +9.8 | 0 / 1 | -6.1 | 1 | -6.1 | +0.24 | -7.4 |
| 6 | SEA | 41 | -0.052 | -0.027 | -0.025 | -2.1 | 0 / 1 | -5.5 | 1 | -5.5 | -0.07 | +5.8 |
| 8 | CLE | 38 | +0.159 | +0.149 | +0.010 | +6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.25 | -1.9 |
| 9 | CHI | 33 | +0.143 | +0.127 | +0.016 | +4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -2.3 | +0.29 | +9.4 |
| 11 | LAC | 47 | +0.003 | +0.011 | -0.008 | +0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.20 | -4.2 |
| 12 | CIN | 44 | -0.355 | -0.332 | -0.023 | -15.6 | 2 / 1 | -19.8 | 3 | -7.6 | -0.21 | -5.4 |
| 13 | BAL | 33 | +0.277 | +0.281 | -0.004 | +9.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.7 | +0.47 | +4.4 |
| 14 | MIN | 46 | -0.159 | -0.170 | +0.011 | -7.3 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 5 | -9.1 | -0.11 | +2.6 |
| 15 | TEN | 28 | -0.298 | -0.273 | -0.025 | -8.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | -0.22 | -7.3 |
| 16 | KC | 37 | -0.320 | -0.287 | -0.033 | -11.9 | 1 / 1 | -10.6 | 2 | -8.7 | -0.17 | -3.8 |
| 17 | CLE | 48 | -0.365 | -0.364 | -0.001 | -17.5 | 1 / 0 | -0.4 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.29 | -15.9 |
| 18 | BAL | 45 | +0.055 | +0.064 | -0.010 | +2.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.52 | -0.7 |
| 19 | KC | 46 | -0.108 | -0.079 | -0.029 | -5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.30 | -0.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.