Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Aaron Rodgers — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.226
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.214
Dropbacks
592
Turnover EPA
-20.7
WPA
+4.17
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 29 | -0.460 | -0.550 | +0.090 | -13.3 | 2 / 0 | -10.0 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.18 | -8.0 |
| 2 | DET | 30 | +0.452 | +0.586 | -0.133 | +13.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.1 | +0.62 | +15.8 |
| 3 | SF | 32 | +0.245 | +0.226 | +0.019 | +7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.39 | +15.7 |
| 4 | PIT | 39 | +0.147 | +0.092 | +0.056 | +5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.17 | -6.7 |
| 5 | CIN | 40 | +0.207 | +0.217 | -0.011 | +8.3 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 2 | -1.0 | +0.69 | +15.1 |
| 6 | CHI | 26 | +0.282 | +0.261 | +0.021 | +7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.4 | +0.24 | +12.8 |
| 7 | WAS | 38 | +0.288 | +0.287 | +0.001 | +10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.2 | +0.18 | +10.3 |
| 8 | ARI | 38 | +0.060 | +0.038 | +0.023 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.00 | -8.1 |
| 10 | SEA | 38 | +0.022 | +0.045 | -0.023 | +0.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.02 | -5.4 |
| 11 | MIN | 35 | +0.694 | +0.665 | +0.030 | +24.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.64 | +7.0 |
| 12 | LA | 47 | +0.283 | +0.179 | +0.104 | +13.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.25 | +0.0 |
| 14 | CHI | 40 | +0.418 | +0.396 | +0.022 | +16.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.1 | +0.43 | +17.1 |
| 15 | BAL | 34 | +0.567 | +0.564 | +0.003 | +19.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.8 | +0.52 | +13.8 |
| 16 | CLE | 34 | +0.181 | +0.168 | +0.012 | +6.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | +3.8 |
| 17 | MIN | 38 | +0.283 | +0.263 | +0.020 | +10.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | +8.1 |
| 18 | DET | 21 | +0.030 | +0.177 | -0.147 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.17 | +6.6 |
| 20 | SF | 33 | -0.031 | -0.044 | +0.013 | -1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.1 | -0.11 | +3.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.