Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Aaron Rodgers — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.017
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.009
Dropbacks
575
Turnover EPA
-64.5
WPA
-0.70
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 38 | -0.323 | -0.306 | -0.017 | -12.3 | 1 / 1 | -7.8 | 4 | -12.7 | -0.13 | -2.8 |
| 2 | CHI | 28 | +0.364 | +0.412 | -0.048 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.7 | +0.24 | +4.7 |
| 3 | TB | 36 | +0.137 | +0.125 | +0.012 | +4.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.17 | +10.9 |
| 4 | NE | 36 | +0.080 | +0.012 | +0.068 | +2.9 | 1 / 0 | -7.2 | 1 | -2.2 | -0.11 | +0.5 |
| 5 | NYG | 41 | +0.064 | +0.069 | -0.005 | +2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.29 | -2.5 |
| 6 | NYJ | 45 | -0.324 | -0.295 | -0.029 | -14.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -8.8 | -0.35 | -2.0 |
| 7 | WAS | 34 | -0.094 | -0.083 | -0.010 | -3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.34 | -4.5 |
| 8 | BUF | 32 | +0.022 | -0.044 | +0.066 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.11 | -0.3 |
| 9 | DET | 45 | -0.403 | -0.301 | -0.102 | -18.1 | 3 / 0 | -18.0 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.46 | -4.7 |
| 10 | DAL | 22 | +0.411 | +0.313 | +0.098 | +9.0 | 0 / 1 | -4.7 | 2 | -7.1 | +0.57 | +11.0 |
| 11 | TEN | 41 | +0.067 | +0.066 | +0.001 | +2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.08 | -0.5 |
| 12 | PHI | 19 | +0.067 | +0.013 | +0.054 | +1.3 | 2 / 0 | -8.1 | 3 | -4.7 | -0.03 | -0.7 |
| 13 | CHI | 32 | +0.088 | +0.143 | -0.055 | +2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -3.1 |
| 15 | LA | 33 | +0.039 | +0.031 | +0.008 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.07 | +7.0 |
| 16 | MIA | 40 | +0.065 | +0.053 | +0.012 | +2.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.03 | -1.5 |
| 17 | MIN | 24 | +0.064 | +0.071 | -0.007 | +1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -4.6 | -0.12 | +3.1 |
| 18 | DET | 29 | -0.144 | -0.043 | -0.101 | -4.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 2 | -4.8 | -0.12 | +3.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.