Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Aaron Rodgers — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.011
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.018
Dropbacks
627
Turnover EPA
-63.1
WPA
-0.29
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 22 | +0.176 | +0.148 | +0.028 | +3.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.02 | -5.9 |
| 2 | TEN | 32 | +0.028 | +0.052 | -0.024 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.08 | -8.6 |
| 3 | NE | 37 | +0.470 | +0.492 | -0.022 | +17.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.31 | +12.7 |
| 4 | DEN | 47 | -0.249 | -0.257 | +0.008 | -11.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -10.2 | -0.83 | -7.4 |
| 5 | MIN | 57 | -0.246 | -0.283 | +0.037 | -14.1 | 3 / 0 | -13.9 | 3 | -5.5 | -0.65 | -7.7 |
| 6 | BUF | 38 | +0.286 | +0.294 | -0.008 | +10.9 | 1 / 0 | -0.9 | 3 | -1.1 | +0.08 | -0.5 |
| 7 | PIT | 41 | +0.017 | +0.002 | +0.015 | +0.7 | 2 / 0 | -9.3 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.05 | -5.4 |
| 8 | NE | 30 | +0.110 | +0.141 | -0.030 | +3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.17 | +8.3 |
| 9 | HOU | 34 | +0.296 | +0.253 | +0.043 | +10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.47 | -1.3 |
| 10 | ARI | 38 | -0.370 | -0.287 | -0.083 | -14.1 | 0 / 1 | -3.7 | 3 | -7.7 | -0.14 | -2.6 |
| 11 | IND | 32 | -0.051 | -0.014 | -0.037 | -1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.3 | -0.39 | +3.5 |
| 13 | SEA | 41 | -0.369 | -0.342 | -0.027 | -15.1 | 1 / 0 | -10.9 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.40 | -10.2 |
| 14 | MIA | 42 | +0.367 | +0.352 | +0.015 | +15.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.3 | +0.46 | +2.2 |
| 15 | JAX | 32 | +0.376 | +0.430 | -0.054 | +12.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.65 | -3.1 |
| 16 | LA | 43 | +0.057 | +0.064 | -0.008 | +2.4 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 1 | -4.8 | +0.06 | -3.4 |
| 17 | BUF | 22 | -0.729 | -0.710 | -0.019 | -16.0 | 2 / 0 | -9.9 | 4 | -6.4 | -0.18 | -7.6 |
| 18 | MIA | 39 | +0.058 | +0.052 | +0.006 | +2.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 3 | -5.0 | +0.09 | -3.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.