Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Aaron Rodgers — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.020
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.003
Dropbacks
563
Turnover EPA
-49.7
WPA
-0.38
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 34 | +0.196 | +0.300 | -0.105 | +6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.6 | +0.10 | +6.4 |
| 2 | SEA | 36 | -0.104 | -0.172 | +0.068 | -3.7 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 3 | -3.2 | -0.23 | -6.4 |
| 3 | NE | 23 | +0.040 | +0.008 | +0.032 | +0.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | +4.5 |
| 4 | MIN | 24 | +0.264 | +0.158 | +0.106 | +6.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.19 | +9.6 |
| 6 | CLE | 30 | +0.390 | +0.320 | +0.070 | +11.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | +8.2 |
| 7 | CIN | 34 | +0.337 | +0.392 | -0.054 | +11.5 | 2 / 0 | -4.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +4.9 |
| 8 | GB | 40 | -0.099 | -0.101 | +0.003 | -3.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.24 | +5.0 |
| 9 | IND | 38 | -0.028 | +0.000 | -0.028 | -1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.03 | -2.6 |
| 10 | LAC | 34 | -0.471 | -0.532 | +0.061 | -16.0 | 2 / 0 | -10.1 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.54 | -10.8 |
| 11 | CIN | 16 | +0.023 | +0.077 | -0.054 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.09 | -10.3 |
| 13 | BUF | 22 | -0.419 | -0.435 | +0.017 | -9.2 | 0 / 1 | -8.5 | 1 | -8.5 | -0.34 | -20.2 |
| 14 | BAL | 34 | +0.324 | +0.311 | +0.014 | +11.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | +4.3 |
| 15 | MIA | 30 | +0.333 | +0.371 | -0.037 | +10.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.2 | +0.16 | +10.4 |
| 16 | DET | 43 | +0.286 | +0.256 | +0.029 | +12.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.29 | -1.4 |
| 17 | CLE | 39 | -0.263 | -0.318 | +0.055 | -10.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.49 | -9.1 |
| 18 | BAL | 49 | +0.162 | +0.152 | +0.010 | +7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | +0.53 | +1.2 |
| 19 | HOU | 37 | -0.623 | -0.719 | +0.096 | -23.1 | 1 / 1 | -14.2 | 4 | -12.0 | -0.64 | -7.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.