Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Aaron Rodgers — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.080
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.091
Dropbacks
283
Turnover EPA
-24.3
WPA
-0.62
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 42 | -0.174 | -0.187 | +0.013 | -7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.34 | +1.2 |
| 2 | NE | 43 | -0.476 | -0.498 | +0.022 | -20.5 | 1 / 1 | -12.1 | 4 | -15.0 | -0.36 | -6.4 |
| 3 | CIN | 35 | +0.204 | +0.245 | -0.041 | +7.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.17 | -2.2 |
| 4 | CLE | 46 | +0.120 | +0.053 | +0.068 | +5.5 | 2 / 0 | -3.7 | 5 | -9.0 | -0.04 | -6.4 |
| 5 | IND | 32 | +0.134 | +0.133 | +0.001 | +4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.08 | +2.5 |
| 6 | TB | 52 | -0.259 | -0.264 | +0.005 | -13.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 5 | -8.0 | -0.22 | +5.6 |
| 7 | NO | 33 | +0.054 | +0.063 | -0.008 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | +0.10 | -2.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.