Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Matt Ryan — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.066
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.056
Dropbacks
502
Turnover EPA
-80.6
WPA
+0.80
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 52 | +0.040 | +0.058 | -0.018 | +2.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.3 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.91 | -4.8 |
| 2 | JAX | 35 | -0.656 | -0.581 | -0.075 | -23.0 | 3 / 0 | -10.9 | 5 | -7.6 | -0.12 | -5.6 |
| 3 | KC | 42 | -0.108 | -0.096 | -0.012 | -4.6 | 0 / 1 | -5.3 | 5 | -11.9 | +0.09 | +2.0 |
| 4 | TEN | 40 | +0.223 | +0.219 | +0.004 | +8.9 | 1 / 1 | -10.6 | 3 | -8.3 | +0.07 | +4.7 |
| 5 | DEN | 46 | -0.219 | -0.240 | +0.021 | -10.1 | 2 / 0 | -8.6 | 6 | -10.2 | -0.11 | +3.0 |
| 6 | JAX | 59 | +0.229 | +0.283 | -0.054 | +13.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.72 | +3.6 |
| 7 | TEN | 47 | -0.200 | -0.194 | -0.006 | -9.4 | 2 / 0 | -14.7 | 3 | -4.2 | -0.35 | +9.6 |
| 10 | LV | 31 | +0.170 | +0.240 | -0.071 | +5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.9 | +0.14 | +2.2 |
| 11 | PHI | 36 | -0.047 | -0.093 | +0.046 | -1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.6 | -0.31 | +0.6 |
| 12 | PIT | 37 | -0.167 | -0.137 | -0.030 | -6.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 3 | -5.2 | -0.12 | -1.2 |
| 13 | DAL | 41 | -0.137 | -0.221 | +0.084 | -5.6 | 3 / 1 | -19.3 | 3 | -10.3 | -0.08 | -10.4 |
| 15 | MIN | 36 | -0.072 | -0.060 | -0.011 | -2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.9 | -0.03 | -8.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.