Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Joe Flacco — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.123
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.126
Dropbacks
201
Turnover EPA
-32.6
WPA
-0.53
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 62 | -0.156 | -0.115 | -0.041 | -9.7 | 1 / 0 | -6.8 | 3 | -3.4 | -0.52 | -4.1 |
| 2 | CLE | 46 | +0.315 | +0.268 | +0.047 | +14.5 | 0 / 1 | -4.2 | 2 | -5.3 | +0.41 | +0.2 |
| 3 | CIN | 56 | -0.411 | -0.419 | +0.007 | -23.0 | 2 / 2 | -16.3 | 4 | -12.2 | -0.33 | -4.3 |
| 14 | BUF | 4 | -1.741 | -1.804 | +0.064 | -7.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.3 | 1 | -5.3 | -0.14 | -34.6 |
| 18 | MIA | 33 | +0.011 | +0.002 | +0.009 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.04 | -6.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.