Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Matthew Stafford — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.208
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.213
Dropbacks
780
Turnover EPA
-94.3
WPA
+4.94
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 27 | +0.728 | +0.698 | +0.030 | +19.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.46 | +8.3 |
| 2 | IND | 31 | +0.403 | +0.385 | +0.018 | +12.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.53 | -4.3 |
| 3 | TB | 39 | +0.528 | +0.453 | +0.075 | +20.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.49 | +1.0 |
| 4 | ARI | 41 | +0.082 | +0.058 | +0.024 | +3.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | -2.2 |
| 5 | SEA | 38 | +0.355 | +0.370 | -0.015 | +13.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.50 | +9.7 |
| 6 | NYG | 30 | +0.624 | +0.619 | +0.004 | +18.7 | 1 / 0 | -0.3 | 2 | -5.4 | +0.28 | +11.7 |
| 7 | DET | 43 | +0.212 | +0.351 | -0.138 | +9.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.59 | +0.7 |
| 8 | HOU | 32 | +0.418 | +0.506 | -0.088 | +13.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.15 | -2.5 |
| 9 | TEN | 53 | -0.404 | -0.377 | -0.026 | -21.4 | 2 / 0 | -14.0 | 5 | -8.3 | -0.60 | -7.2 |
| 10 | SF | 43 | -0.196 | -0.204 | +0.008 | -8.4 | 2 / 0 | -7.9 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.16 | -2.1 |
| 12 | GB | 41 | -0.035 | -0.057 | +0.021 | -1.5 | 1 / 1 | -12.8 | 2 | -8.1 | -0.15 | -8.5 |
| 13 | JAX | 39 | +0.205 | +0.334 | -0.129 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.11 | +1.9 |
| 14 | ARI | 33 | +0.473 | +0.441 | +0.032 | +15.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.67 | +8.8 |
| 15 | SEA | 33 | -0.100 | -0.074 | -0.026 | -3.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 4 | -7.6 | +0.04 | -0.2 |
| 16 | MIN | 37 | -0.257 | -0.264 | +0.007 | -9.5 | 3 / 0 | -13.9 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.20 | -10.1 |
| 17 | BAL | 37 | +0.156 | +0.163 | -0.007 | +5.8 | 2 / 1 | -14.0 | 1 | -6.0 | +0.44 | +3.9 |
| 18 | SF | 37 | +0.362 | +0.340 | +0.022 | +13.4 | 2 / 0 | -2.1 | 5 | -7.8 | -0.10 | -2.0 |
| 19 | ARI | 18 | +0.733 | +0.695 | +0.038 | +13.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.16 | +11.1 |
| 20 | TB | 39 | +0.506 | +0.432 | +0.074 | +19.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.64 | +13.2 |
| 21 | SF | 47 | +0.300 | +0.279 | +0.021 | +14.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.61 | +6.4 |
| 22 | CIN | 42 | +0.131 | +0.145 | -0.014 | +5.5 | 2 / 0 | -6.2 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.46 | -0.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.