Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Matthew Stafford — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.047
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.072
Dropbacks
332
Turnover EPA
-63.1
WPA
-0.41
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 48 | -0.291 | -0.349 | +0.058 | -14.0 | 3 / 0 | -15.6 | 7 | -11.3 | -0.29 | -0.6 |
| 2 | ATL | 37 | +0.099 | +0.175 | -0.076 | +3.7 | 2 / 0 | -11.0 | 1 | -0.5 | +0.02 | +7.9 |
| 3 | ARI | 26 | +0.385 | +0.389 | -0.004 | +10.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.23 | +6.2 |
| 4 | SF | 55 | -0.202 | -0.233 | +0.032 | -11.1 | 1 / 1 | -13.5 | 7 | -11.5 | -0.24 | -1.6 |
| 5 | DAL | 47 | -0.223 | -0.306 | +0.083 | -10.5 | 1 / 2 | -14.9 | 5 | -15.8 | -0.37 | -1.2 |
| 6 | CAR | 34 | +0.088 | +0.090 | -0.001 | +3.0 | 1 / 0 | -8.1 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.15 | +8.3 |
| 8 | SF | 35 | +0.050 | +0.012 | +0.038 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.3 | +0.06 | -5.5 |
| 9 | TB | 31 | -0.146 | -0.151 | +0.005 | -4.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.6 | -0.20 | -13.5 |
| 11 | NO | 19 | +0.312 | +0.238 | +0.074 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.24 | -1.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.