Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Matthew Stafford — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.125
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.123
Dropbacks
589
Turnover EPA
-52.0
WPA
+1.96
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 38 | +0.506 | +0.544 | -0.038 | +19.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.56 | -0.4 |
| 2 | SF | 55 | -0.031 | -0.099 | +0.067 | -1.7 | 2 / 0 | -9.4 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.08 | -9.8 |
| 3 | CIN | 39 | -0.233 | -0.216 | -0.018 | -9.1 | 2 / 0 | -8.7 | 6 | -8.6 | -0.38 | -6.3 |
| 4 | IND | 42 | +0.268 | +0.271 | -0.003 | +11.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.30 | +1.6 |
| 5 | PHI | 41 | -0.062 | -0.062 | -0.000 | -2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.2 | -0.01 | -7.5 |
| 6 | ARI | 25 | +0.056 | +0.140 | -0.084 | +1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | +0.26 | +3.3 |
| 7 | PIT | 32 | -0.090 | -0.079 | -0.011 | -2.9 | 1 / 0 | -7.3 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.01 | -19.7 |
| 8 | DAL | 24 | -0.222 | -0.247 | +0.025 | -5.3 | 1 / 0 | -8.1 | 1 | -2.6 | -0.11 | -8.3 |
| 11 | SEA | 32 | -0.199 | -0.143 | -0.056 | -6.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.18 | -14.2 |
| 12 | ARI | 33 | +0.322 | +0.400 | -0.078 | +10.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.7 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.21 | +12.8 |
| 13 | CLE | 37 | +0.250 | +0.144 | +0.106 | +9.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | -5.1 |
| 14 | BAL | 44 | +0.206 | +0.127 | +0.079 | +9.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.22 | +0.3 |
| 15 | WAS | 36 | +0.157 | +0.219 | -0.062 | +5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.1 | +0.07 | +6.3 |
| 16 | NO | 35 | +0.495 | +0.430 | +0.066 | +17.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.22 | +7.6 |
| 17 | NYG | 38 | +0.022 | +0.024 | -0.002 | +0.8 | 2 / 0 | -8.7 | 4 | -5.2 | +0.06 | +1.1 |
| 19 | DET | 38 | +0.439 | +0.489 | -0.049 | +16.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.52 | +6.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.