Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Matthew Stafford — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.075
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.066
Dropbacks
624
Turnover EPA
-46.6
WPA
+1.40
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 51 | +0.092 | +0.089 | +0.003 | +4.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 2 | -1.7 | -0.06 | +0.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 32 | -0.433 | -0.349 | -0.085 | -13.9 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 5 | -13.3 | -0.16 | +1.4 |
| 3 | SF | 28 | +0.147 | +0.122 | +0.025 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.06 | +3.7 |
| 4 | CHI | 33 | -0.071 | -0.069 | -0.002 | -2.3 | 1 / 1 | -8.6 | 3 | -8.9 | -0.17 | -0.0 |
| 5 | GB | 48 | -0.162 | -0.187 | +0.025 | -7.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 3 | -5.5 | -0.52 | -5.2 |
| 7 | LV | 24 | -0.299 | -0.302 | +0.003 | -7.2 | 1 / 0 | -7.6 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.11 | -9.6 |
| 8 | MIN | 34 | +0.523 | +0.467 | +0.055 | +17.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.69 | +4.5 |
| 9 | SEA | 44 | +0.071 | +0.088 | -0.017 | +3.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.58 | -3.0 |
| 10 | MIA | 49 | -0.150 | -0.152 | +0.002 | -7.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 4 | -8.5 | -0.22 | +1.0 |
| 11 | NE | 27 | +0.574 | +0.593 | -0.019 | +15.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.51 | +10.0 |
| 12 | PHI | 42 | +0.140 | +0.099 | +0.042 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.2 | -0.10 | -0.6 |
| 13 | NO | 26 | +0.044 | +0.011 | +0.032 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.28 | -3.9 |
| 14 | BUF | 30 | +0.823 | +0.819 | +0.004 | +24.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.59 | +7.8 |
| 15 | SF | 27 | -0.199 | -0.218 | +0.019 | -5.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.04 | -4.3 |
| 16 | NYJ | 19 | +0.207 | +0.168 | +0.039 | +3.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.10 | -1.8 |
| 17 | ARI | 32 | -0.090 | -0.015 | -0.075 | -2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | -12.2 |
| 19 | MIN | 29 | +0.232 | +0.183 | +0.048 | +6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.06 | +3.2 |
| 20 | PHI | 49 | +0.117 | +0.076 | +0.041 | +5.7 | 0 / 1 | -4.4 | 5 | -10.5 | -0.11 | -5.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.