Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Colt McCoy — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.120
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.136
Dropbacks
105
Turnover EPA
-11.7
WPA
+0.44
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SF | 28 | +0.503 | +0.476 | +0.028 | +14.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.24 | +12.6 |
| 10 | CAR | 22 | -0.718 | -0.702 | -0.016 | -15.8 | 1 / 1 | -11.7 | 2 | -7.5 | -0.24 | -12.6 |
| 11 | SEA | 46 | +0.327 | +0.343 | -0.016 | +15.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.44 | +8.5 |
| 15 | DET | 9 | -0.082 | +0.073 | -0.155 | -0.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | -9.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.