Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Cam Newton — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.270
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.290
Dropbacks
137
Turnover EPA
-22.7
WPA
-0.84
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | ARI | 4 | -0.201 | -0.226 | +0.025 | -0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | -1.7 |
| 11 | WAS | 28 | +0.090 | +0.094 | -0.004 | +2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.00 | +8.5 |
| 12 | MIA | 22 | -0.548 | -0.594 | +0.045 | -12.1 | 2 / 0 | -7.5 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.25 | -42.5 |
| 14 | ATL | 24 | -0.226 | -0.147 | -0.079 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -9.4 | 1 | -2.7 | -0.00 | -6.1 |
| 15 | BUF | 43 | -0.287 | -0.353 | +0.065 | -12.4 | 1 / 0 | -1.2 | 4 | -8.2 | -0.38 | -15.9 |
| 16 | TB | 16 | -0.552 | -0.607 | +0.055 | -8.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 3 | -5.9 | -0.18 | -14.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.