Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Andy Dalton — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.039
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.047
Dropbacks
404
Turnover EPA
-49.6
WPA
-0.06
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | MIN | 31 | +0.241 | +0.245 | -0.004 | +7.5 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 2 | -6.6 | +0.35 | +8.3 |
| 5 | SEA | 25 | -0.037 | +0.001 | -0.038 | -0.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.07 | -2.3 |
| 6 | CIN | 33 | +0.121 | +0.101 | +0.020 | +4.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.11 | -7.5 |
| 7 | ARI | 47 | -0.041 | -0.029 | -0.012 | -1.9 | 3 / 0 | -20.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.10 | -0.8 |
| 8 | LV | 30 | +0.257 | +0.329 | -0.071 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | +1.7 |
| 9 | BAL | 33 | -0.179 | -0.138 | -0.041 | -5.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 4 | -7.5 | -0.32 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 29 | -0.078 | -0.049 | -0.030 | -2.3 | 2 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.01 | -2.7 |
| 11 | LA | 28 | +0.395 | +0.381 | +0.014 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.9 | +0.57 | +14.4 |
| 12 | SF | 30 | +0.048 | +0.011 | +0.037 | +1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -3.0 | -0.04 | -2.5 |
| 13 | TB | 30 | +0.134 | +0.122 | +0.013 | +4.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.06 | +8.8 |
| 15 | ATL | 19 | +0.229 | +0.296 | -0.067 | +4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.23 | -5.2 |
| 16 | CLE | 15 | -0.305 | -0.334 | +0.029 | -4.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.10 | -11.6 |
| 17 | PHI | 28 | -0.126 | -0.170 | +0.044 | -3.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 6 | -10.1 | -0.16 | +14.5 |
| 18 | CAR | 26 | -0.199 | -0.190 | -0.008 | -5.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.38 | -9.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.