Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tyrod Taylor — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.128
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.092
Dropbacks
162
Turnover EPA
-26.2
WPA
-0.58
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 34 | +0.287 | +0.413 | -0.126 | +9.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.23 | +1.7 |
| 2 | CLE | 11 | +0.828 | +0.809 | +0.019 | +9.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | +19.0 |
| 9 | MIA | 47 | -0.258 | -0.308 | +0.051 | -12.1 | 3 / 0 | -12.3 | 5 | -6.3 | -0.43 | -3.4 |
| 11 | TEN | 24 | -0.026 | -0.012 | -0.013 | -0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | -8.9 |
| 12 | NYJ | 31 | -0.539 | -0.415 | -0.124 | -16.7 | 1 / 0 | -8.2 | 5 | -9.6 | -0.36 | -1.9 |
| 13 | IND | 15 | -0.681 | -0.674 | -0.007 | -10.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.7 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.29 | -30.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.