Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tyrod Taylor — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.002
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.008
Dropbacks
192
Turnover EPA
-9.0
WPA
-0.69
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 2 | -0.253 | -0.272 | +0.020 | -0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +11.9 |
| 3 | SF | 1 | -0.588 | -0.652 | +0.063 | -0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -37.7 |
| 5 | MIA | 13 | +0.162 | +0.188 | -0.026 | +2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | -0.01 | +11.6 |
| 6 | BUF | 37 | -0.015 | -0.048 | +0.034 | -0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.46 | +9.4 |
| 7 | WAS | 33 | +0.086 | +0.149 | -0.063 | +2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.7 | +0.14 | +0.6 |
| 8 | NYJ | 9 | -1.085 | -1.150 | +0.065 | -9.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | -0.23 | -0.0 |
| 15 | NO | 3 | +0.077 | +0.031 | +0.047 | +0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.02 | -12.3 |
| 16 | PHI | 14 | +0.048 | +0.049 | -0.001 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -1.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.01 | -0.6 |
| 17 | LA | 47 | -0.081 | -0.059 | -0.021 | -3.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 6 | -8.0 | -0.41 | +1.5 |
| 18 | PHI | 33 | +0.295 | +0.289 | +0.005 | +9.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.25 | +9.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.