Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tyrod Taylor — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.116
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.090
Dropbacks
147
Turnover EPA
-22.1
WPA
-0.67
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BUF | 13 | +0.436 | +0.415 | +0.021 | +5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.00 | +1.6 |
| 3 | TB | 39 | -0.244 | -0.199 | -0.045 | -9.5 | 1 / 1 | -11.7 | 4 | -7.3 | -0.35 | +7.5 |
| 7 | CAR | 25 | -0.264 | -0.171 | -0.093 | -6.6 | 2 / 0 | -5.7 | 3 | -4.0 | -0.28 | -8.8 |
| 12 | BAL | 31 | +0.032 | +0.025 | +0.007 | +1.0 | 1 / 0 | -0.2 | 3 | -3.7 | +0.16 | -1.5 |
| 13 | ATL | 35 | -0.027 | -0.028 | +0.001 | -0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.5 | -0.13 | -1.6 |
| 14 | MIA | 4 | -1.652 | -1.590 | -0.062 | -6.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.07 | -41.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.