Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Case Keenum — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.101
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.107
Dropbacks
77
Turnover EPA
-11.3
WPA
+0.04
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | ARI | 3 | -1.294 | -1.309 | +0.014 | -3.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -38.0 |
| 7 | DEN | 34 | +0.152 | +0.140 | +0.012 | +5.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.11 | -1.4 |
| 10 | NE | 15 | -0.256 | -0.289 | +0.033 | -3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.1 | -0.00 | +4.1 |
| 18 | CIN | 25 | -0.209 | -0.191 | -0.018 | -5.2 | 1 / 1 | -11.3 | 1 | -8.4 | -0.07 | +2.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.