Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Russell Wilson — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.043
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.038
Dropbacks
435
Turnover EPA
-31.8
WPA
-0.31
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 26 | +0.487 | +0.466 | +0.021 | +12.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | +0.28 | +19.5 |
| 2 | TEN | 34 | +0.231 | +0.244 | -0.013 | +7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.23 | +6.5 |
| 3 | MIN | 34 | +0.034 | +0.021 | +0.013 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.13 | +13.8 |
| 4 | SF | 26 | -0.163 | -0.176 | +0.013 | -4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.0 | -0.02 | +4.3 |
| 5 | LA | 18 | -0.019 | -0.121 | +0.102 | -0.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 2 | -4.5 | -0.07 | +8.0 |
| 10 | GB | 43 | -0.463 | -0.476 | +0.013 | -19.9 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 3 | -5.6 | -0.56 | -9.2 |
| 11 | ARI | 30 | -0.145 | -0.162 | +0.018 | -4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.7 | -0.07 | -5.6 |
| 12 | WAS | 34 | +0.106 | +0.111 | -0.005 | +3.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.01 | +0.9 |
| 13 | SF | 41 | +0.010 | -0.003 | +0.013 | +0.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 4 | -6.9 | -0.21 | +14.2 |
| 14 | HOU | 29 | +0.464 | +0.547 | -0.083 | +13.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.40 | -0.7 |
| 15 | LA | 34 | -0.250 | -0.342 | +0.092 | -8.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.19 | -3.3 |
| 16 | CHI | 29 | +0.077 | +0.063 | +0.014 | +2.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.09 | -3.6 |
| 17 | DET | 30 | +0.374 | +0.508 | -0.134 | +11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.14 | +5.4 |
| 18 | ARI | 27 | +0.123 | +0.097 | +0.026 | +3.3 | 1 / 1 | -13.7 | 1 | -7.3 | +0.19 | +0.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.