Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Russell Wilson — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.026
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.030
Dropbacks
491
Turnover EPA
-59.6
WPA
-0.75
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 35 | +0.063 | +0.090 | -0.027 | +2.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.22 | +15.0 |
| 2 | WAS | 39 | -0.002 | +0.062 | -0.064 | -0.1 | 1 / 1 | -7.9 | 7 | -12.7 | -0.22 | +2.5 |
| 3 | MIA | 39 | +0.032 | +0.057 | -0.025 | +1.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.01 | +3.9 |
| 4 | CHI | 29 | +0.446 | +0.490 | -0.044 | +12.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.33 | +13.6 |
| 5 | NYJ | 34 | -0.225 | -0.307 | +0.081 | -7.7 | 0 / 1 | -7.9 | 4 | -12.8 | -0.46 | +3.8 |
| 6 | KC | 26 | -0.657 | -0.704 | +0.047 | -17.1 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 4 | -5.6 | -0.42 | -11.7 |
| 7 | GB | 30 | +0.131 | +0.137 | -0.006 | +3.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.24 | +15.0 |
| 8 | KC | 25 | -0.138 | -0.194 | +0.056 | -3.4 | 0 / 1 | -1.5 | 6 | -10.4 | -0.09 | +2.7 |
| 10 | BUF | 33 | +0.214 | +0.174 | +0.039 | +7.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.2 | +0.33 | +13.3 |
| 11 | MIN | 37 | +0.026 | +0.040 | -0.014 | +1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.29 | +14.7 |
| 12 | CLE | 23 | +0.298 | +0.194 | +0.104 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.18 | -3.9 |
| 13 | HOU | 29 | -0.511 | -0.516 | +0.005 | -14.8 | 3 / 0 | -11.9 | 3 | -6.1 | -0.66 | +2.5 |
| 14 | LAC | 35 | -0.077 | -0.063 | -0.014 | -2.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.10 | -1.2 |
| 15 | DET | 34 | -0.133 | -0.070 | -0.063 | -4.5 | 0 / 1 | -8.3 | 2 | -9.9 | -0.23 | -9.1 |
| 16 | NE | 43 | +0.053 | +0.017 | +0.036 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -9.0 | -0.15 | +6.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.