Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Russell Wilson — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.043
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.015
Dropbacks
401
Turnover EPA
-34.5
WPA
-0.49
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NYJ | 30 | +0.334 | +0.292 | +0.042 | +10.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.12 | -1.6 |
| 8 | NYG | 31 | +0.069 | +0.121 | -0.052 | +2.1 | 0 / 1 | -4.4 | 4 | -9.1 | +0.03 | +11.8 |
| 10 | WAS | 31 | +0.193 | +0.236 | -0.043 | +6.0 | 1 / 0 | -0.2 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.33 | -2.7 |
| 11 | BAL | 40 | -0.206 | -0.290 | +0.084 | -8.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 4 | -6.7 | -0.11 | +1.7 |
| 12 | CLE | 33 | +0.293 | +0.237 | +0.056 | +9.7 | 0 / 1 | -4.2 | 4 | -9.1 | +0.10 | +26.7 |
| 13 | CIN | 40 | +0.378 | +0.388 | -0.010 | +15.1 | 1 / 0 | -8.3 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.42 | +12.3 |
| 14 | CLE | 27 | +0.030 | -0.021 | +0.050 | +0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | -0.18 | -1.7 |
| 15 | PHI | 24 | -0.209 | -0.244 | +0.035 | -5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.31 | -1.1 |
| 16 | BAL | 35 | -0.103 | -0.188 | +0.085 | -3.6 | 1 / 0 | -8.2 | 3 | -4.0 | +0.09 | +17.2 |
| 17 | KC | 42 | -0.355 | -0.366 | +0.011 | -14.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 5 | -9.6 | -0.33 | -2.5 |
| 18 | CIN | 35 | -0.176 | -0.154 | -0.022 | -6.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.0 | -0.58 | -9.4 |
| 19 | BAL | 33 | +0.341 | +0.246 | +0.095 | +11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.0 | -0.06 | +12.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.