Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Russell Wilson — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.183
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.121
Dropbacks
129
Turnover EPA
-8.8
WPA
+0.25
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 39 | -0.383 | -0.292 | -0.091 | -15.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.25 | -13.5 |
| 2 | DAL | 44 | +0.282 | +0.388 | -0.106 | +12.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 3 | -4.9 | +1.23 | +13.4 |
| 3 | KC | 34 | -0.434 | -0.436 | +0.002 | -14.8 | 2 / 0 | -6.5 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.29 | -4.9 |
| 4 | LAC | 2 | -1.014 | -1.084 | +0.070 | -2.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.05 | +9.1 |
| 6 | PHI | 1 | -1.674 | -1.768 | +0.094 | -1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | -56.9 |
| 10 | CHI | 9 | -0.291 | -0.289 | -0.002 | -2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.37 | -14.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.