Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kirk Cousins — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.116
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.117
Dropbacks
587
Turnover EPA
-44.6
WPA
+3.06
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 51 | +0.193 | +0.204 | -0.011 | +9.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.8 | +0.20 | +6.8 |
| 2 | ARI | 33 | +0.240 | +0.212 | +0.028 | +7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.44 | -1.5 |
| 3 | SEA | 39 | +0.481 | +0.493 | -0.012 | +18.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.58 | +6.4 |
| 4 | CLE | 40 | -0.244 | -0.245 | +0.002 | -9.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.1 | 2 | -4.2 | -0.36 | -11.3 |
| 5 | DET | 35 | +0.002 | +0.146 | -0.144 | +0.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.25 | +6.5 |
| 6 | CAR | 48 | +0.289 | +0.282 | +0.006 | +13.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.64 | +9.6 |
| 8 | DAL | 36 | -0.200 | -0.276 | +0.076 | -7.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | -0.58 | -2.7 |
| 9 | BAL | 28 | +0.270 | +0.274 | -0.004 | +7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -2.2 |
| 10 | LAC | 39 | +0.166 | +0.170 | -0.004 | +6.5 | 0 / 1 | -5.9 | 2 | -7.7 | +0.29 | +3.1 |
| 11 | GB | 37 | +0.596 | +0.559 | +0.037 | +22.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -5.1 | +0.85 | +5.0 |
| 12 | SF | 34 | -0.026 | -0.040 | +0.014 | -0.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.9 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.02 | -2.5 |
| 13 | DET | 44 | -0.044 | +0.101 | -0.145 | -1.9 | 0 / 1 | -5.7 | 3 | -9.1 | +0.14 | +6.9 |
| 14 | PIT | 31 | -0.266 | -0.312 | +0.046 | -8.2 | 2 / 0 | -12.1 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | -18.5 |
| 15 | CHI | 27 | -0.240 | -0.246 | +0.006 | -6.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.1 | 4 | -5.9 | -0.16 | -3.9 |
| 16 | LA | 40 | +0.179 | +0.078 | +0.101 | +7.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.06 | +6.9 |
| 18 | CHI | 25 | +0.345 | +0.325 | +0.020 | +8.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -7.3 | +0.51 | +4.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.