Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kirk Cousins — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.047
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.045
Dropbacks
729
Turnover EPA
-87.2
WPA
+3.07
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 33 | +0.308 | +0.281 | +0.027 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.18 | +5.2 |
| 2 | PHI | 48 | -0.250 | -0.292 | +0.042 | -12.0 | 3 / 0 | -13.1 | 2 | -5.3 | -0.13 | -7.5 |
| 3 | DET | 41 | -0.117 | -0.018 | -0.099 | -4.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.24 | -4.9 |
| 4 | NO | 41 | +0.040 | -0.035 | +0.075 | +1.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 3 | -5.9 | +0.10 | +5.7 |
| 5 | CHI | 42 | +0.228 | +0.278 | -0.050 | +9.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.33 | +7.5 |
| 6 | MIA | 34 | -0.125 | -0.132 | +0.006 | -4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.00 | +1.3 |
| 8 | ARI | 39 | -0.097 | -0.082 | -0.015 | -3.8 | 0 / 1 | -5.2 | 3 | -9.0 | +0.14 | +7.7 |
| 9 | WAS | 42 | +0.013 | +0.021 | -0.008 | +0.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.19 | -1.9 |
| 10 | BUF | 54 | +0.159 | +0.090 | +0.069 | +8.6 | 2 / 0 | -11.9 | 4 | -4.8 | +0.42 | -2.6 |
| 11 | DAL | 30 | -0.529 | -0.608 | +0.079 | -15.9 | 0 / 1 | -5.7 | 7 | -15.8 | -0.27 | -10.6 |
| 12 | NE | 38 | +0.382 | +0.306 | +0.076 | +14.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.9 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.50 | +9.9 |
| 13 | NYJ | 37 | -0.071 | -0.051 | -0.020 | -2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.07 | -2.9 |
| 14 | DET | 45 | +0.390 | +0.481 | -0.091 | +17.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | +0.30 | +14.0 |
| 15 | IND | 62 | +0.088 | +0.099 | -0.011 | +5.5 | 2 / 0 | -9.5 | 7 | -9.9 | +0.66 | -6.2 |
| 16 | NYG | 51 | -0.030 | -0.023 | -0.007 | -1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.9 | +0.10 | +2.3 |
| 17 | GB | 33 | -0.506 | -0.522 | +0.015 | -16.7 | 3 / 1 | -22.9 | 2 | -6.9 | -0.37 | -7.0 |
| 18 | CHI | 20 | +0.788 | +0.831 | -0.042 | +15.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.36 | +23.3 |
| 19 | NYG | 39 | +0.313 | +0.314 | -0.001 | +12.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.39 | +13.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.