Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kirk Cousins — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.049
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.045
Dropbacks
478
Turnover EPA
-89.1
WPA
+0.99
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 27 | -0.402 | -0.407 | +0.005 | -10.9 | 2 / 0 | -12.4 | 2 | -1.9 | -0.30 | -2.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 31 | +0.338 | +0.293 | +0.045 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.44 | +2.9 |
| 3 | KC | 31 | +0.107 | +0.090 | +0.017 | +3.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.04 | +6.6 |
| 4 | NO | 36 | +0.002 | -0.030 | +0.031 | +0.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.30 | -6.8 |
| 5 | TB | 60 | +0.340 | +0.369 | -0.029 | +20.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 4 | -5.5 | +1.03 | +6.7 |
| 6 | CAR | 30 | +0.363 | +0.410 | -0.047 | +10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.21 | +0.9 |
| 7 | SEA | 38 | -0.273 | -0.248 | -0.025 | -10.4 | 2 / 1 | -18.9 | 3 | -11.6 | +0.03 | +1.6 |
| 8 | TB | 31 | +0.463 | +0.488 | -0.025 | +14.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.48 | +12.7 |
| 9 | DAL | 26 | +0.305 | +0.323 | -0.019 | +7.9 | 0 / 1 | -4.4 | 2 | -5.6 | +0.38 | +11.6 |
| 10 | NO | 41 | +0.001 | -0.030 | +0.031 | +0.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 3 | -4.7 | -0.57 | -2.9 |
| 11 | DEN | 29 | -0.235 | -0.245 | +0.011 | -6.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 3 | -5.3 | +0.01 | -1.0 |
| 13 | LAC | 40 | -0.278 | -0.291 | +0.013 | -11.1 | 4 / 0 | -18.0 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.66 | -5.6 |
| 14 | MIN | 38 | +0.063 | +0.019 | +0.044 | +2.4 | 2 / 0 | -9.0 | 1 | -2.8 | +0.25 | -7.1 |
| 15 | LV | 20 | -0.374 | -0.376 | +0.001 | -7.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 3 | -6.6 | -0.04 | -2.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.