Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kirk Cousins — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.034
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.007
Dropbacks
281
Turnover EPA
-25.8
WPA
+0.33
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CAR | 7 | -0.532 | -0.435 | -0.097 | -3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | -8.3 |
| 8 | MIA | 32 | -0.235 | -0.183 | -0.051 | -7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.02 | +2.5 |
| 11 | CAR | 14 | -0.350 | -0.271 | -0.079 | -4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.39 | -27.5 |
| 12 | NO | 25 | -0.138 | -0.159 | +0.020 | -3.5 | 1 / 0 | -8.5 | 3 | -5.7 | -0.17 | +7.2 |
| 13 | NYJ | 35 | +0.059 | +0.167 | -0.108 | +2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.3 | +0.13 | -0.8 |
| 14 | SEA | 31 | -0.435 | -0.496 | +0.061 | -13.5 | 2 / 0 | -9.0 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.15 | -12.8 |
| 15 | TB | 46 | +0.333 | +0.366 | -0.033 | +15.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.60 | +7.7 |
| 16 | ARI | 36 | +0.156 | +0.225 | -0.069 | +5.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.7 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.20 | -6.9 |
| 17 | LA | 20 | +0.260 | +0.246 | +0.013 | +5.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.21 | +0.5 |
| 18 | NO | 35 | -0.137 | -0.158 | +0.020 | -4.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 4 | -6.5 | -0.08 | -6.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.