Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kirk Cousins — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.156
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.143
Dropbacks
269
Turnover EPA
-19.8
WPA
+1.26
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 30 | -0.110 | +0.013 | -0.123 | -3.3 | 2 / 0 | -9.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | +0.7 |
| 2 | LAC | 31 | +0.260 | +0.193 | +0.067 | +8.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.31 | +2.9 |
| 3 | NO | 38 | +0.232 | +0.236 | -0.004 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | +0.37 | +8.6 |
| 4 | KC | 50 | +0.237 | +0.196 | +0.042 | +11.9 | 1 / 0 | -0.7 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | -3.0 |
| 5 | NE | 31 | +0.341 | +0.297 | +0.044 | +10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.1 | +0.04 | +0.4 |
| 6 | BUF | 41 | +0.301 | +0.280 | +0.021 | +12.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.42 | -9.7 |
| 7 | LA | 48 | -0.134 | -0.153 | +0.019 | -6.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.20 | -7.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.