Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Ryan Tannehill — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.059
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.057
Dropbacks
358
Turnover EPA
-34.4
WPA
+0.88
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 33 | +0.231 | +0.231 | +0.000 | +7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.6 | +0.27 | -0.1 |
| 2 | BUF | 22 | -0.468 | -0.524 | +0.056 | -10.3 | 2 / 0 | -12.4 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.07 | -11.2 |
| 3 | LV | 28 | +0.368 | +0.436 | -0.068 | +10.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.33 | +6.3 |
| 4 | IND | 24 | -0.022 | -0.011 | -0.011 | -0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -7.0 | +0.07 | +9.5 |
| 5 | WAS | 30 | -0.029 | -0.019 | -0.010 | -0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -9.0 | +0.07 | +5.2 |
| 7 | IND | 22 | +0.153 | +0.160 | -0.007 | +3.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.06 | -0.6 |
| 10 | DEN | 37 | +0.161 | +0.130 | +0.032 | +6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.14 | -15.7 |
| 11 | GB | 30 | +0.596 | +0.562 | +0.034 | +17.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 3 | -5.2 | +0.39 | +23.6 |
| 12 | CIN | 35 | +0.212 | +0.190 | +0.022 | +7.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.28 | +0.4 |
| 13 | PHI | 28 | -0.268 | -0.311 | +0.044 | -7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -10.5 | -0.06 | -2.1 |
| 14 | JAX | 43 | -0.146 | -0.084 | -0.062 | -6.3 | 1 / 1 | -10.7 | 4 | -8.7 | -0.41 | +0.9 |
| 15 | LAC | 26 | -0.232 | -0.245 | +0.013 | -6.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 4 | -6.1 | -0.19 | -4.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.