Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Mike Glennon — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.444
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.466
Dropbacks
174
Turnover EPA
-64.8
WPA
-1.08
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | DAL | 25 | -0.033 | -0.114 | +0.082 | -0.8 | 2 / 0 | -12.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.03 | +4.6 |
| 13 | MIA | 45 | -0.225 | -0.276 | +0.051 | -10.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.7 | 3 | -5.2 | -0.37 | -4.3 |
| 14 | LAC | 38 | -0.307 | -0.291 | -0.016 | -11.7 | 1 / 1 | -6.5 | 2 | -4.9 | -0.04 | -16.2 |
| 15 | DAL | 24 | -0.528 | -0.601 | +0.073 | -12.7 | 3 / 0 | -12.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.28 | -12.3 |
| 16 | PHI | 27 | -0.212 | -0.180 | -0.032 | -5.7 | 1 / 0 | -7.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | -0.3 |
| 17 | CHI | 15 | -2.412 | -2.371 | -0.041 | -36.2 | 2 / 2 | -23.1 | 4 | -15.2 | -0.31 | -29.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.