Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Geno Smith — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.041
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.045
Dropbacks
658
Turnover EPA
-75.8
WPA
+0.19
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 30 | +0.311 | +0.276 | +0.035 | +9.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.09 | +12.4 |
| 2 | SF | 32 | -0.219 | -0.247 | +0.028 | -7.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.06 | +13.8 |
| 3 | ATL | 46 | +0.184 | +0.258 | -0.074 | +8.5 | 1 / 0 | -0.9 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.16 | +9.7 |
| 4 | DET | 30 | +0.620 | +0.701 | -0.080 | +18.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.50 | +13.1 |
| 5 | NO | 29 | +0.352 | +0.272 | +0.080 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.8 | +0.00 | +2.2 |
| 6 | ARI | 36 | -0.192 | -0.175 | -0.017 | -6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.8 | -0.15 | -3.0 |
| 7 | LAC | 29 | +0.180 | +0.157 | +0.023 | +5.2 | 1 / 0 | -6.6 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.21 | +10.9 |
| 8 | NYG | 37 | +0.075 | +0.081 | -0.005 | +2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.13 | +6.5 |
| 9 | ARI | 36 | -0.048 | -0.035 | -0.013 | -1.7 | 1 / 0 | -8.9 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.07 | +7.3 |
| 10 | TB | 37 | +0.119 | +0.106 | +0.012 | +4.4 | 0 / 1 | -4.6 | 3 | -7.6 | -0.02 | +5.5 |
| 12 | LV | 40 | +0.128 | +0.201 | -0.073 | +5.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.08 | +6.2 |
| 13 | LA | 43 | +0.259 | +0.246 | +0.013 | +11.1 | 1 / 1 | -10.5 | 4 | -8.3 | +0.54 | +6.3 |
| 14 | CAR | 39 | -0.015 | -0.012 | -0.004 | -0.6 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.22 | -1.4 |
| 15 | SF | 47 | -0.140 | -0.174 | +0.034 | -6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.7 | -0.50 | +2.8 |
| 16 | KC | 42 | -0.451 | -0.433 | -0.018 | -18.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.28 | +0.6 |
| 17 | NYJ | 33 | -0.098 | -0.075 | -0.023 | -3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.0 | +0.09 | +4.1 |
| 18 | LA | 33 | -0.230 | -0.235 | +0.005 | -7.6 | 2 / 0 | -10.5 | 3 | -2.5 | -0.24 | +0.6 |
| 19 | SF | 39 | +0.113 | +0.072 | +0.040 | +4.4 | 1 / 1 | -9.3 | 3 | -9.0 | +0.20 | +10.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.