Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Geno Smith — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.057
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.064
Dropbacks
528
Turnover EPA
-41.5
WPA
+1.99
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 28 | -0.181 | -0.157 | -0.024 | -5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.10 | -1.3 |
| 2 | DET | 41 | +0.300 | +0.353 | -0.054 | +12.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.79 | +15.7 |
| 3 | CAR | 39 | +0.164 | +0.162 | +0.001 | +6.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.02 | +3.2 |
| 4 | NYG | 22 | -0.422 | -0.415 | -0.008 | -9.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.06 | -2.5 |
| 6 | CIN | 45 | -0.096 | -0.080 | -0.016 | -4.3 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 4 | -6.7 | -0.55 | +13.7 |
| 7 | ARI | 26 | +0.202 | +0.280 | -0.078 | +5.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.30 | +12.2 |
| 8 | CLE | 38 | +0.173 | +0.069 | +0.104 | +6.6 | 2 / 0 | -6.8 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.07 | -0.4 |
| 9 | BAL | 32 | -0.393 | -0.458 | +0.065 | -12.6 | 1 / 1 | -5.6 | 4 | -7.4 | -0.25 | -13.3 |
| 10 | WAS | 47 | +0.039 | +0.102 | -0.063 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.42 | +3.1 |
| 11 | LA | 35 | +0.126 | +0.147 | -0.021 | +4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | +0.28 | +0.2 |
| 12 | SF | 33 | -0.299 | -0.362 | +0.063 | -9.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 6 | -11.6 | -0.33 | +4.0 |
| 13 | DAL | 40 | +0.333 | +0.294 | +0.039 | +13.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.33 | -7.5 |
| 16 | TEN | 39 | +0.248 | +0.283 | -0.035 | +9.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | +0.47 | +4.4 |
| 17 | PIT | 34 | +0.207 | +0.212 | -0.005 | +7.1 | 0 / 1 | -5.8 | 1 | -5.8 | +0.21 | +6.8 |
| 18 | ARI | 29 | +0.149 | +0.231 | -0.082 | +4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.40 | -10.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.