Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Geno Smith — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.029
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.035
Dropbacks
629
Turnover EPA
-70.6
WPA
+0.58
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 28 | -0.192 | -0.205 | +0.013 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.17 | +5.3 |
| 2 | NE | 46 | +0.166 | +0.195 | -0.029 | +7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.4 | +0.53 | +8.5 |
| 3 | MIA | 37 | -0.017 | -0.022 | +0.005 | -0.6 | 2 / 0 | -6.9 | 3 | -5.3 | +0.03 | +6.7 |
| 4 | DET | 60 | +0.153 | +0.148 | +0.005 | +9.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.01 | -0.8 |
| 5 | NYG | 47 | -0.142 | -0.088 | -0.055 | -6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -12.9 | -0.28 | -0.5 |
| 6 | SF | 52 | +0.110 | +0.085 | +0.025 | +5.7 | 2 / 0 | -8.0 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.13 | +0.6 |
| 7 | ATL | 29 | +0.219 | +0.246 | -0.027 | +6.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.30 | +6.6 |
| 8 | BUF | 30 | +0.025 | +0.038 | -0.014 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -6.3 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.04 | +3.1 |
| 9 | LA | 41 | -0.145 | -0.133 | -0.012 | -6.0 | 3 / 0 | -21.6 | 7 | -9.3 | -0.14 | +0.5 |
| 11 | SF | 36 | +0.005 | -0.021 | +0.026 | +0.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 4 | -6.6 | +0.14 | +16.0 |
| 12 | ARI | 36 | -0.016 | +0.059 | -0.075 | -0.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 5 | -10.7 | +0.11 | +8.9 |
| 13 | NYJ | 34 | -0.012 | -0.046 | +0.034 | -0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -8.4 | -0.28 | +3.1 |
| 14 | ARI | 30 | +0.169 | +0.239 | -0.070 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | +10.5 |
| 15 | GB | 22 | -0.219 | -0.237 | +0.018 | -4.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 3 | -6.7 | -0.06 | +22.8 |
| 16 | MIN | 45 | +0.051 | +0.007 | +0.044 | +2.3 | 2 / 0 | -6.5 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.09 | +6.4 |
| 17 | CHI | 26 | -0.163 | -0.161 | -0.002 | -4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.23 | +8.8 |
| 18 | LA | 30 | +0.327 | +0.328 | -0.001 | +9.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.53 | +6.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.