Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Geno Smith — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.136
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.146
Dropbacks
503
Turnover EPA
-93.3
WPA
-1.98
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 37 | +0.425 | +0.385 | +0.040 | +15.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 4 | -5.8 | +0.27 | +9.6 |
| 2 | LAC | 46 | -0.439 | -0.501 | +0.062 | -20.2 | 3 / 0 | -10.9 | 3 | -7.7 | -0.43 | -15.3 |
| 3 | WAS | 35 | +0.274 | +0.350 | -0.076 | +9.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.8 | +0.02 | +11.7 |
| 4 | CHI | 20 | -0.490 | -0.480 | -0.010 | -9.8 | 3 / 0 | -16.1 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | -3.6 |
| 5 | IND | 40 | -0.306 | -0.273 | -0.033 | -12.2 | 2 / 0 | -12.0 | 4 | -8.4 | -0.05 | -0.3 |
| 6 | TEN | 25 | -0.045 | +0.023 | -0.068 | -1.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.02 | +2.8 |
| 7 | KC | 17 | -0.574 | -0.571 | -0.003 | -9.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.07 | -8.0 |
| 9 | JAX | 42 | +0.294 | +0.271 | +0.023 | +12.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 2 | -1.0 | -0.18 | +1.5 |
| 10 | DEN | 32 | -0.421 | -0.510 | +0.089 | -13.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 6 | -10.9 | -0.52 | -6.7 |
| 11 | DAL | 46 | -0.431 | -0.309 | -0.122 | -19.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 4 | -9.3 | -0.26 | -3.2 |
| 12 | CLE | 54 | -0.321 | -0.375 | +0.054 | -17.3 | 0 / 1 | -5.2 | 10 | -20.7 | -0.45 | +0.5 |
| 13 | LAC | 28 | -0.004 | -0.076 | +0.072 | -0.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 5 | -10.8 | -0.08 | +12.2 |
| 14 | DEN | 24 | -0.012 | -0.112 | +0.100 | -0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | -0.12 | +5.5 |
| 16 | HOU | 26 | +0.177 | +0.064 | +0.113 | +4.6 | 1 / 0 | -8.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.03 | +4.9 |
| 17 | NYG | 31 | -0.210 | -0.155 | -0.055 | -6.5 | 2 / 0 | -11.7 | 3 | -5.5 | -0.16 | +7.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.