Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Geno Smith — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.104
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.117
Dropbacks
230
Turnover EPA
-19.0
WPA
+0.09
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 24 | +0.339 | +0.406 | -0.067 | +8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | +12.8 |
| 2 | GB | 44 | +0.094 | +0.098 | -0.004 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.1 | -0.03 | +5.9 |
| 3 | DET | 44 | +0.229 | +0.247 | -0.019 | +10.1 | 0 / 1 | -4.7 | 5 | -11.3 | +0.41 | +14.8 |
| 4 | CHI | 18 | -0.273 | -0.270 | -0.003 | -4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.7 | -0.19 | -11.4 |
| 5 | CLE | 34 | -0.277 | -0.333 | +0.056 | -9.4 | 0 / 1 | -5.8 | 4 | -11.0 | -0.62 | -9.0 |
| 6 | NE | 33 | +0.222 | +0.178 | +0.044 | +7.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.01 | +3.5 |
| 7 | MIA | 33 | +0.260 | +0.370 | -0.110 | +8.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.22 | +11.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.