Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Derek Carr — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.055
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.050
Dropbacks
532
Turnover EPA
-61.6
WPA
+0.21
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 43 | -0.114 | -0.128 | +0.014 | -4.9 | 3 / 0 | -13.1 | 5 | -9.0 | -0.15 | -2.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 40 | +0.103 | +0.114 | -0.011 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.34 | -5.9 |
| 3 | TEN | 46 | +0.120 | +0.117 | +0.003 | +5.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.05 | +6.1 |
| 4 | DEN | 36 | -0.064 | -0.092 | +0.028 | -2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.09 | -0.3 |
| 5 | KC | 32 | +0.207 | +0.212 | -0.005 | +6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.20 | +8.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 28 | +0.426 | +0.435 | -0.009 | +11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.47 | +7.7 |
| 8 | NO | 29 | -0.343 | -0.409 | +0.066 | -10.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.20 | -10.2 |
| 9 | JAX | 38 | +0.153 | +0.209 | -0.056 | +5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.10 | -7.8 |
| 10 | IND | 41 | +0.039 | +0.048 | -0.010 | +1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.07 | -8.7 |
| 11 | DEN | 38 | +0.220 | +0.187 | +0.033 | +8.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.38 | -3.1 |
| 12 | SEA | 37 | +0.337 | +0.368 | -0.031 | +12.5 | 2 / 0 | -9.7 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.59 | +3.6 |
| 13 | LAC | 30 | -0.065 | -0.081 | +0.016 | -2.0 | 1 / 0 | -7.1 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.20 | -5.6 |
| 14 | LA | 20 | -0.037 | -0.042 | +0.004 | -0.7 | 2 / 0 | -5.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.06 | -9.3 |
| 15 | NE | 41 | -0.030 | -0.095 | +0.065 | -1.2 | 1 / 0 | -7.7 | 3 | -5.3 | +0.03 | -3.4 |
| 16 | PIT | 33 | -0.190 | -0.159 | -0.031 | -6.3 | 3 / 0 | -9.5 | 3 | -5.4 | -0.33 | -13.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.