Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Derek Carr — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.032
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.048
Dropbacks
581
Turnover EPA
-48.3
WPA
+0.66
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 37 | +0.060 | +0.099 | -0.039 | +2.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 4 | -5.5 | +0.11 | +6.2 |
| 2 | CAR | 40 | -0.058 | -0.055 | -0.004 | -2.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 4 | -6.7 | -0.04 | -2.0 |
| 3 | GB | 21 | -0.008 | +0.004 | -0.011 | -0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.7 | +0.04 | +9.2 |
| 4 | TB | 39 | -0.364 | -0.327 | -0.037 | -14.2 | 0 / 1 | -3.2 | 2 | -4.9 | -0.35 | -8.3 |
| 5 | NE | 28 | +0.162 | +0.123 | +0.039 | +4.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.4 | +0.00 | +10.2 |
| 6 | HOU | 52 | +0.117 | +0.100 | +0.017 | +6.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.04 | +5.5 |
| 7 | JAX | 57 | -0.291 | -0.277 | -0.014 | -16.6 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 1 | -0.7 | -0.33 | -7.4 |
| 8 | IND | 28 | +0.486 | +0.483 | +0.003 | +13.6 | 0 / 1 | -4.3 | 1 | -4.3 | +0.46 | +6.0 |
| 9 | CHI | 34 | +0.026 | +0.080 | -0.054 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.21 | +4.6 |
| 10 | MIN | 20 | -0.134 | -0.116 | -0.019 | -2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.14 | -0.4 |
| 12 | ATL | 39 | -0.071 | -0.033 | -0.038 | -2.8 | 1 / 0 | -11.5 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.06 | -1.4 |
| 13 | DET | 24 | +0.249 | +0.305 | -0.056 | +6.0 | 1 / 0 | -6.7 | 2 | -4.6 | +0.12 | +9.7 |
| 14 | CAR | 27 | -0.366 | -0.354 | -0.012 | -9.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 1 | -3.0 | -0.26 | +8.5 |
| 15 | NYG | 29 | +0.349 | +0.343 | +0.006 | +10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.29 | +11.9 |
| 16 | LA | 43 | +0.021 | +0.041 | -0.020 | +0.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 2 | -5.9 | -0.07 | -3.0 |
| 17 | TB | 33 | +0.259 | +0.280 | -0.021 | +8.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.26 | +4.3 |
| 18 | ATL | 30 | +0.472 | +0.499 | -0.027 | +14.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.46 | +19.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.