Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Derek Carr — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.150
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.164
Dropbacks
290
Turnover EPA
-20.1
WPA
+0.89
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 24 | +0.305 | +0.356 | -0.051 | +7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.09 | +13.7 |
| 2 | DAL | 17 | +0.820 | +0.825 | -0.005 | +13.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.51 | +3.1 |
| 3 | PHI | 27 | +0.061 | +0.022 | +0.039 | +1.6 | 1 / 0 | -1.0 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.10 | -6.9 |
| 4 | ATL | 37 | -0.036 | -0.003 | -0.033 | -1.3 | 1 / 0 | -8.6 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.14 | +4.9 |
| 5 | KC | 29 | +0.012 | -0.001 | +0.014 | +0.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.08 | +9.4 |
| 9 | CAR | 33 | +0.047 | +0.103 | -0.056 | +1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.07 | +0.3 |
| 10 | ATL | 25 | +0.222 | +0.249 | -0.027 | +5.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | +5.7 |
| 11 | CLE | 28 | +0.497 | +0.438 | +0.059 | +13.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.19 | +7.9 |
| 13 | LA | 38 | -0.052 | -0.042 | -0.009 | -2.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | -2.4 |
| 14 | NYG | 32 | +0.080 | +0.133 | -0.053 | +2.6 | 1 / 0 | -1.8 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.15 | -0.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.