Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jimmy Garoppolo — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.175
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.168
Dropbacks
546
Turnover EPA
-75.8
WPA
+3.46
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 25 | +0.685 | +0.813 | -0.128 | +17.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.28 | +6.2 |
| 2 | PHI | 30 | +0.199 | +0.216 | -0.017 | +6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.37 | +0.1 |
| 3 | GB | 44 | +0.038 | +0.015 | +0.023 | +1.7 | 1 / 1 | -9.6 | 4 | -8.8 | +0.25 | -2.1 |
| 4 | SEA | 24 | -0.072 | -0.051 | -0.020 | -1.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.01 | -2.1 |
| 7 | IND | 30 | -0.356 | -0.356 | -0.000 | -10.7 | 2 / 1 | -11.7 | 2 | -5.5 | -0.38 | -5.7 |
| 8 | CHI | 28 | +0.590 | +0.564 | +0.026 | +16.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.51 | -4.7 |
| 9 | ARI | 45 | +0.148 | +0.124 | +0.024 | +6.7 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 5 | -8.0 | -0.21 | +4.8 |
| 10 | LA | 20 | +0.888 | +0.771 | +0.117 | +17.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.25 | +8.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 24 | +0.290 | +0.418 | -0.128 | +7.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.18 | +16.3 |
| 12 | MIN | 28 | +0.132 | +0.116 | +0.016 | +3.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.11 | -0.1 |
| 13 | SEA | 31 | +0.033 | +0.056 | -0.023 | +1.0 | 2 / 0 | -10.6 | 1 | -0.3 | -0.03 | -2.3 |
| 14 | CIN | 46 | +0.134 | +0.147 | -0.012 | +6.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.0 | +0.81 | +7.5 |
| 15 | ATL | 23 | +0.462 | +0.525 | -0.063 | +10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | +11.8 |
| 16 | TEN | 37 | +0.075 | +0.091 | -0.016 | +2.8 | 2 / 0 | -11.5 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.11 | +3.1 |
| 18 | LA | 34 | +0.203 | +0.100 | +0.104 | +6.9 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 3 | -5.1 | +0.70 | +4.4 |
| 19 | DAL | 25 | +0.089 | +0.006 | +0.082 | +2.2 | 1 / 0 | -6.1 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | -5.3 |
| 20 | GB | 23 | -0.311 | -0.326 | +0.015 | -7.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 4 | -7.0 | -0.13 | -9.3 |
| 21 | LA | 29 | +0.318 | +0.214 | +0.104 | +9.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | -18.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.