Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jimmy Garoppolo — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.236
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.232
Dropbacks
326
Turnover EPA
-18.8
WPA
+0.95
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SEA | 22 | +0.062 | +0.101 | -0.039 | +1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.08 | -3.6 |
| 3 | DEN | 33 | -0.150 | -0.173 | +0.024 | -4.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 4 | -5.5 | -0.75 | -6.5 |
| 4 | LA | 27 | +0.414 | +0.397 | +0.017 | +11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | -8.4 |
| 5 | CAR | 32 | +0.584 | +0.573 | +0.011 | +18.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.23 | -5.9 |
| 6 | ATL | 41 | +0.008 | +0.087 | -0.079 | +0.3 | 2 / 0 | -5.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | -0.7 |
| 7 | KC | 42 | +0.048 | +0.057 | -0.009 | +2.0 | 1 / 1 | -9.5 | 5 | -10.3 | -0.00 | -0.4 |
| 8 | LA | 28 | +0.542 | +0.520 | +0.023 | +15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.40 | +12.6 |
| 10 | LAC | 29 | +0.374 | +0.348 | +0.026 | +10.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.21 | -2.4 |
| 11 | ARI | 29 | +0.560 | +0.560 | -0.000 | +16.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +0.4 |
| 12 | NO | 38 | +0.109 | +0.034 | +0.075 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -4.3 | -0.00 | +4.3 |
| 13 | MIA | 5 | +0.371 | +0.360 | +0.011 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.03 | -11.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.