Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jimmy Garoppolo — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.107
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.097
Dropbacks
183
Turnover EPA
-40.6
WPA
+0.22
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 26 | +0.495 | +0.503 | -0.008 | +12.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.53 | +13.1 |
| 2 | BUF | 24 | -0.051 | -0.084 | +0.032 | -1.2 | 2 / 0 | -10.6 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | +3.1 |
| 3 | PIT | 49 | -0.162 | -0.149 | -0.013 | -8.0 | 3 / 0 | -9.5 | 4 | -6.3 | -0.15 | -4.4 |
| 5 | GB | 33 | -0.024 | -0.013 | -0.011 | -0.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 3 | -7.2 | +0.19 | +0.2 |
| 6 | NE | 22 | +0.275 | +0.233 | +0.042 | +6.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | -5.4 |
| 8 | DET | 27 | -0.976 | -0.895 | -0.081 | -26.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 6 | -12.5 | -0.47 | -17.4 |
| 18 | DEN | 2 | -1.081 | -1.068 | -0.014 | -2.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.05 | -67.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.