Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Taylor Heinicke — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.043
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.055
Dropbacks
532
Turnover EPA
-72.7
WPA
-0.05
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 15 | +0.312 | +0.322 | -0.009 | +4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.20 | +18.0 |
| 2 | NYG | 46 | +0.011 | +0.017 | -0.006 | +0.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 1 | -3.2 | +0.04 | +7.7 |
| 3 | BUF | 25 | +0.270 | +0.194 | +0.076 | +6.8 | 2 / 0 | -9.3 | 1 | -0.7 | -0.14 | -6.3 |
| 4 | ATL | 35 | +0.455 | +0.517 | -0.061 | +15.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.5 | +0.88 | +3.5 |
| 5 | NO | 44 | -0.206 | -0.302 | +0.096 | -9.1 | 2 / 0 | -6.8 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.32 | -12.1 |
| 6 | KC | 39 | -0.177 | -0.147 | -0.030 | -6.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.12 | -6.8 |
| 7 | GB | 40 | -0.244 | -0.264 | +0.019 | -9.8 | 1 / 1 | -9.8 | 4 | -8.7 | -0.23 | +3.8 |
| 8 | DEN | 44 | -0.054 | -0.060 | +0.006 | -2.4 | 2 / 0 | -3.0 | 5 | -7.7 | -0.32 | -4.2 |
| 10 | TB | 37 | +0.304 | +0.234 | +0.070 | +11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.6 | +0.22 | +12.3 |
| 11 | CAR | 25 | +0.555 | +0.541 | +0.013 | +13.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.5 | +0.51 | +23.2 |
| 12 | SEA | 36 | +0.153 | +0.175 | -0.021 | +5.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.24 | +7.3 |
| 13 | LV | 31 | +0.117 | +0.178 | -0.061 | +3.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.29 | +7.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 29 | -0.759 | -0.826 | +0.066 | -22.0 | 1 / 1 | -13.2 | 4 | -12.8 | -0.43 | -17.6 |
| 16 | DAL | 26 | -0.811 | -0.882 | +0.071 | -21.1 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 4 | -4.7 | -0.17 | -30.9 |
| 17 | PHI | 38 | -0.142 | -0.118 | -0.025 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 3 | -6.4 | -0.52 | +7.0 |
| 18 | NYG | 22 | -0.393 | -0.377 | -0.016 | -8.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.18 | -8.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.