Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Taylor Heinicke — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.049
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.045
Dropbacks
276
Turnover EPA
-55.7
WPA
-0.41
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | GB | 34 | -0.013 | -0.032 | +0.019 | -0.4 | 1 / 0 | -9.2 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.01 | -2.4 |
| 8 | IND | 33 | +0.041 | +0.051 | -0.010 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.15 | +4.3 |
| 9 | MIN | 31 | -0.373 | -0.355 | -0.018 | -11.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 3 | -5.0 | -0.37 | -9.5 |
| 10 | PHI | 30 | +0.144 | +0.094 | +0.050 | +4.3 | 1 / 1 | -8.2 | 3 | -7.0 | +0.14 | +6.9 |
| 11 | HOU | 27 | +0.023 | +0.042 | -0.019 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | +1.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 23 | +0.025 | +0.103 | -0.078 | +0.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.09 | -2.8 |
| 13 | NYG | 46 | -0.013 | -0.007 | -0.006 | -0.6 | 0 / 1 | -4.4 | 5 | -9.7 | -0.18 | +2.7 |
| 15 | NYG | 32 | -0.342 | -0.329 | -0.013 | -10.9 | 0 / 2 | -11.0 | 3 | -13.0 | -0.56 | +2.9 |
| 16 | SF | 20 | +0.162 | +0.121 | +0.041 | +3.2 | 1 / 1 | -9.5 | 2 | -6.6 | +0.27 | +15.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.