Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Trevor Siemian — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.061
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.052
Dropbacks
201
Turnover EPA
-26.3
WPA
-0.43
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | TB | 30 | +0.043 | -0.025 | +0.068 | +1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.11 | -4.1 |
| 9 | ATL | 43 | -0.215 | -0.138 | -0.077 | -9.2 | 0 / 1 | -8.4 | 1 | -8.4 | -0.01 | -5.3 |
| 10 | TEN | 39 | +0.133 | +0.147 | -0.015 | +5.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.1 | +0.03 | -4.5 |
| 11 | PHI | 41 | -0.227 | -0.201 | -0.025 | -9.3 | 2 / 0 | -12.9 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.27 | -4.5 |
| 12 | BUF | 32 | -0.093 | -0.160 | +0.066 | -3.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.13 | -8.7 |
| 18 | ATL | 16 | +0.174 | +0.238 | -0.064 | +2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.06 | +2.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.